Football Value Bets

Profitable EV Betting

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Prob. %
Odds
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  • Limited to 2 Bets Per Market
  • JSON API Disabled
  • Randomised Order
  • Fixtures from Next 12 Hours
  • No Filter for League Predictability
  • Cup Competitions Included

Join the team with OddAlerts Pro and start your value betting journey. The Discord has become a fantastic place to discuss EV Betting over the past few months and led to inspiration for re-developing this very page. Pro users can filter to their hearts content, capping value, odds, or probability.

Home Wins (1x2)

Finding value bets for the best home teams can often come down to getting on the games early, and that’s why we offer the ability to view 5+ days ahead on this page, pulling in the latest 1x2 odds from Pinnacle, Bet365, and 1xBet. The value is defined by the OddAlerts Probability model, so closer to the game as the odds start to drop, so will the value that’s on offer. You can view all the current dropping odds on our dedicated page.

Football Value Betting (EV Betting)

This page will show you value bets for today, but first, what is Value Betting? Value betting is a smarter, more systematic approach to betting on football. You might have seen it as “EV Betting” around the internet. In short, EV stands for Expected Value and it’s used as a way to measure the gap in probability between two parties. In this case, the OddAlerts Probability Model and the sportsbooks around the world. For the value bets you see on this page, we are comparing our implied odds against Bet365, Pinnacle, and 1xBet.

Why Is Expected Value Important?

Beating the bookies is hard, so to stand a chance you need an edge over them. Finding value bets is the process of finding that edge. If you can find a bet that is priced at less than it’s worth, then you have a value bet. It’s important to get into your head that the odds are a reflection of the probability given to an outcome by the bookmaker.

Calculating Odds from Probability

There’s a formula for working out the implied probability when looking at the odds (100/“the odds”). Example:

If Manchester City are 1.40 to win, then we can do the following: 100/1.40 = 71.4(%). This means that the bookmakers are giving City a 71.4% chance of winning this fixture. Remember that the odds offered by bookmakers will also include their margins for profit. Another quick example would be Under 2.5 Goals @ 4.00 for the same fixture. We can do 100/4.00 and we see that this is the bookmaker giving a 25% chance of occurring.

Comparing & Identifying Value Bets

After we have converted the bookmakers odds to probability, we can then compare with the output from the OddAlerts Probability Model (or your own models, for that matter). If the bookmakers are offering lower odds, then there’s no value there. Those fixtures will not appear on this page. We will compare odds with Pinnacle, Bet365, and 1xBet and show the current best odds per bet. You can select a specific bookmaker using the filters tab. Many will also find value bets by simply comparing the odds from a sharp bookmaker, like Pinnacle, to those currently listed on “soft” bookmakers, such as Bet365. A sharp bookmaker will have fast-moving odds, much closer to the true probability of an outcome.

What Does "High", "Poor", "Medium", "Good" Mean?

This is the predictability rating given to the league or competition by OddAlerts after monitoring the recent performance of value bets. League can come in and out of a rating, so keep an eye on your favourites.

Home Win Settings

Value Bets API

OddAlerts now offers the ability to export raw data from the database, including value bets. Perfect for refining your value betting strategies. This is the start of the API that will be developed across 2022. If you have any suggestions for specific endpoints, please get in touch on Discord. The data will be presented as JSON, this is a pre-formatted text-based output, meaning you can use it in as many ways as possible. You can use it to power your spreadsheets or your locally run betting models. Please note that once the API hits v1, it will be launched at an additional cost to OddAlerts.

Download Example JSON

Your API URLs

The Value Bets API will not use your current filter settings, as the intention with this is to give you the raw data so you can manipulate it yourself. The following URLs are specific to your account:

Upcoming Value Bets

https://oddalerts.com/value-bets?export=upcoming&key=please_upgrade

Value Bets Results

https://oddalerts.com/value-bets?export=results&key=please_upgrade