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USL Championship Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for USL Championship

Find value bets for USL Championship fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Charleston Battery vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

poor

Sat 7th, 23:00

HT Result

Home

3.02 Fair: 2.64 Pinnacle

+14.39%

Model: 37.8%

FT Result

Home

2.26 Fair: 1.98 Pinnacle

+14.14%

Model: 50.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.20 Fair: 1.93 Bet365

+13.99%

Model: 51.7%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 WilliamHill

+1.49%

Model: 74.5%

Sporting JAX vs Hartford Athletic

poor

Sun 8th, 00:30

HT Result

Home

2.85 Fair: 2.45 Pinnacle

+16.33%

Model: 40.8%

FT Result

Home

2.20 Fair: 1.97 Pinnacle

+11.68%

Model: 50.8%

BTTS

Yes

1.80 Fair: 1.75 Bet365

+2.86%

Model: 57%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.30 Fair: 1.29 WilliamHill

+0.78%

Model: 77.5%

Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

poor

Sun 8th, 01:00

FT Result

Home

2.70 Fair: 2.15 Betfair Exchange

+25.58%

Model: 46.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.55 Fair: 1.41 WilliamHill

+9.93%

Model: 71.1%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.24 WilliamHill

+6.25%

Model: 44.6%

HT Result

Home

3.21 Fair: 3.12 Pinnacle

+2.88%

Model: 32.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.38 Fair: 2.35 Pinnacle

+1.28%

Model: 42.6%

San Antonio vs Phoenix Rising

poor

Sun 8th, 01:30

FT Result

Home

2.24 Fair: 1.79 Pinnacle

+25.14%

Model: 55.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.35 Fair: 1.25 WilliamHill

+8%

Model: 79.8%

HT Result

Home

2.86 Fair: 2.73 Pinnacle

+4.76%

Model: 36.6%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.35 Fair: 1.31 WilliamHill

+3.05%

Model: 76.1%

El Paso Locomotive vs Colorado Springs

poor

Sun 8th, 02:00

BTTS

Yes

1.75 Fair: 1.72 WilliamHill

+1.74%

Model: 58.3%

FT Result

Home

2.12 Fair: 2.11 Pinnacle

+0.47%

Model: 47.5%

Orange County vs Las Vegas Lights

poor

Sun 8th, 03:00

FT Result

Away

4.20 Fair: 4.17 Bet365

+0.72%

Model: 24%

Monterey Bay vs Oakland Roots

poor

Sun 8th, 03:00

FT Result

Home

2.23 Fair: 1.96 Pinnacle

+13.78%

Model: 51.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.35 Fair: 1.32 WilliamHill

+2.27%

Model: 76%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.35 Fair: 1.33 WilliamHill

+1.5%

Model: 75.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.83 Fair: 1.82 Bet365

+0.55%

Model: 55.1%

HT Result

Home

2.88 Fair: 2.87 Pinnacle

+0.35%

Model: 34.8%

Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa Roughnecks

poor

Sun 8th, 03:00

FT Result

Home

2.42 Fair: 1.90 Pinnacle

+27.37%

Model: 52.7%

HT Result

Home

3.16 Fair: 2.74 Pinnacle

+15.33%

Model: 36.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.35 Fair: 1.26 WilliamHill

+7.14%

Model: 79.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.