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  1. Bet of the Day
Saturday 14 November

Bet of the Day

The picks our probability model likes most for tomorrow, then every match ranked by how likely it is to land. No tipsters and no guesswork: every pick is locked before kick-off and tracked.

Tomorrow's picks

How we pick
Bet of the Day

Aviron Bayonnais to win

SAG Cestas v Aviron Bayonnais

France Coupe de France

Chance
76%
Odds
1.48
Edge
+11.8%

Our model gives this a 76% chance. Odds of 1.48 imply 68%, an edge of 11.8%.

Match preview : SAG Cestas vs Aviron Bayonnais
Value play

Austria to win

Austria v Republic of Ireland

Europe UEFA Nations League

Chance
68%
Odds
1.66
Edge
+13%

The biggest edge over the bookmaker with at least a 45% chance.

Match preview : Austria vs Republic of Ireland

Earlier today

Bet of the Day Over 1.5 goalsLiechtenstein v Azerbaijan · 0-1 1.41 Lost Safest pick Under 3.5 goalsSlovenia v Switzerland 1.22 Live Value play Over 2.5 goalsMoldova v Kazakhstan · 2-1 2.38 Won Bigger price Under 2.5 goalsSlovakia v Faroe Islands · 2-2 2.04 Lost

Every prediction, ranked

Full-Time Result

You're seeing the top 5 in each market for the next 24 hours.

See every game with Pro
1 Tomorrow Panionios U19 to win Panionios U19 v Anagennisi Karditsas U19 Greece · Super League 2 K19 95% Fair 1.05 1.10 +4.4% +EV
2 Tomorrow Zenit W to win Yenisey W v Zenit W Russia · Premier League Women 94% Fair 1.07 1.03 -3.4%
3 Tomorrow Real Betis U19 to win Real Betis U19 v Cádiz U19 Spain · División De Honor Juvenil - Group 4 90% Fair 1.11 1.26 +13.1% +EV
4 Tomorrow Sebat Gençlikspor to win Sebat Gençlikspor v Adana Demirspor Turkey · 2. Lig: Beyaz 89% Fair 1.12 1.07 -4.5%
5 Tomorrow Damm U19 to win Damm U19 v Racing Club Zaragoza U19 Spain · División De Honor Juvenil - Group 3 89% Fair 1.12 1.44 +28.3% +EV
Show every game

Track record Every pick is locked before kick-off and settled at the odds we published. Last 30 days, logged since 8 November 2026.

All picks 76% 16 of 21 won +5.59 units
Bet of the Day 80% 4 of 5 · avg 1.55 +0.93 units
Safest pick 100% 5 of 5 · avg 1.22 +1.12 units
Value play 67% 4 of 6 · avg 2.15 +2.36 units
Bigger price 60% 3 of 5 · avg 2.05 +1.18 units
Thu 12 Nov Bet of the Day Over 1.5 goals Albania v Finland · 2-0 1.44 Won
Thu 12 Nov Safest pick Over 1.5 goals Italy v France · 3-1 1.20 Won
Thu 12 Nov Value play Both teams to score Tarancón v Levante · 1-1 2.60 Won
Thu 12 Nov Bigger price Both teams to score Navalcarnero v Real Betis · 2-2 2.14 Won
Wed 11 Nov Bet of the Day Under 3.5 goals Sheffield Wednesday v Accrington Stanley · 0-4 1.84 Lost
Wed 11 Nov Safest pick Barnsley or Oldham Athletic to win Barnsley v Oldham Athletic · 5-2 1.22 Won
Wed 11 Nov Value play Over 3.5 goals Vietnam v Chinese Taipei · 2-0 1.86 Lost
Wed 11 Nov Bigger price Both teams to score Podbrezová v Zlaté Moravce · 2-0 2.05 Lost
Tue 10 Nov Bet of the Day Under 3.5 goals Trival Valderas v Leganés · 0-1 1.60 Won
Tue 10 Nov Safest pick Mijas Las Lagunas or Real Jaén to win Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén · 1-2 1.30 Won
Tue 10 Nov Value play Under 2.5 goals Pamplona v SD Eibar · 0-3 2.69 Lost
Tue 10 Nov Bigger price Under 2.5 goals SD Amorebieta v UD Logroñés · 1-0 2.00 Won
Mon 9 Nov Bet of the Day Under 3.5 goals Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted · 1-1 1.45 Won
Mon 9 Nov Safest pick Over 1.5 goals León v Guadalajara · 1-1 1.20 Won
Mon 9 Nov Value play Under 3.5 goals Kristiansund v Vålerenga · 1-0 1.86 Won
Mon 9 Nov Bigger price Under 2.5 goals Torreense v União de Leiria · 2-3 2.03 Lost
Sun 8 Nov Bet of the Day Under 3.5 goals Brest v Olympique Lyonnais · 2-0 1.44 Won
Sun 8 Nov Safest pick Over 1.5 goals Lens v Olympique Marseille · 1-2 1.20 Won
Sun 8 Nov Value play Over 2.5 goals Manchester United v Aston Villa · 4-4 1.52 Won
Sun 8 Nov Bigger price FC Barcelona to win Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona · 1-2 2.04 Won

How Bet of the Day works

One model, every match

Our probability model prices every game from team form, home and away records, squad news and context, then ranks each market by how likely the result is.

Four picks a day

  • Bet of the Day The most likely pick priced 1.40 or bigger.
  • Safest pick The most likely pick priced 1.20 or bigger.
  • Value play The biggest edge over the bookmaker with at least a 45% chance.
  • Bigger price The most likely pick priced 2.00 or bigger.

Edge, explained

Edge compares our probability with the price. A 60% chance at odds of 2.00 is a 20% edge. Positive edge (+EV) means the odds are bigger than they should be.

Go further

Value bets Every bet today where the odds beat our model, filtered by market, league and edge. Live in-play alerts Telegram alerts the moment our model spots in-play value. We scan odds every second. Betting trends Which teams keep hitting over 2.5, both teams to score and more. Betslip generator Doubles, trebles and accas built from probability-backed picks.

Bet of the Day FAQs

What is the bet of the day?

It is the single pick our probability model rates highest for the day at a price worth backing: the most likely result across the main football markets with odds of 1.40 or bigger. It sits alongside a safest pick, a value play and a bigger price, and every pick is chosen by the model, not a tipster.

How are the picks chosen?

Our probability model prices every match in the main markets: full-time result, double chance, both teams to score and goals. Each group takes the strongest candidate that meets its rule, one game per group, with picks from the leagues people follow most coming first. The picks are locked for the day so they cannot be changed after kick-off.

What is the difference between the safest pick, value play and bigger price?

The safest pick is the most likely result priced 1.20 or bigger. The value play is the pick with the biggest edge over the bookmaker that still has at least a 45% chance. The bigger price is the most likely result priced 2.00 or bigger.

What does edge mean?

Edge compares our probability with the bookmaker's price: (odds × probability) − 1. If our model gives a team a 60% chance and the odds are 2.00, the edge is 20%. A positive edge (+EV) means the odds are bigger than our model thinks they should be.

Are past picks tracked?

Yes. Every daily pick is logged before kick-off and settled against the final score at the odds we published, so the hit rate and profit in the track record are what you would have got.

Is Bet of the Day free?

Yes. The daily picks and the top 5 games in all 15 markets for the next 24 hours are free. Pro shows every ranked game, any day up to two weeks ahead, filters by probability, odds, edge and league, saved strategies and combined CSV exports.

18+. Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org.