Model probabilities for every upcoming match — 1X2, BTTS, Over 2.5 & correct score — refreshed daily
Under 2.5 goals 68.4%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 Goals looks overpriced
Our model shows a -5.43% value edge for the Over 2.5 Goals market (model rating 31.61% vs implied 37.04%). The last five head‑to‑head games averaged only 2.2 goals and produced over 2.5 only twice (40%). Combined with Lanús’ home over‑2.5 rate of 31% and Estudiantes’ away over‑2.5 rate of just 8%, the data suggest the under 2.5 line is the smarter play.
Under 2.5 goals 57.4%
Match result
Core markets
Náutico to win @ 3.75 model 29.4% vs 26.7% implied +2.7%
Home win overvalued – back the visitors
Our model rates a Cuiabá win at 42.12% versus the market implied 48.08%, a -5.96% value gap, meaning the odds overprice the home side. Cuiabá have won only 36% of their home games and average just one goal at home. Náutico are unbeaten in their last three away outings and record BTTS in 64% of away matches, suggesting an upset is plausible.
Under 2.5 goals 56.4%
Match result
Core markets
Operário PR to win @ 5.25 model 23.3% vs 19% implied +4.3%
Away win offers +5.7% value edge
Our model shows a +5.75% value edge for an Operário PR win. The visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches and have a strong BTTS record, scoring both sides in 57% of their games this season. Combined with a solid away form (2 wins, 3 draws in the last five) this suggests the odds are generous.
Corinthians W to win 70.4%
Match result
Core markets
Both teams to score @ 2.00 model 55.6% vs 50% implied +5.6%
Home win is +7.8% value
Our model shows a -7.78% value edge for a home victory. Corinthians have won 8 of their 10 home games (80% win rate) and average 2.5 points per home match, while Bahia manage just 3 wins in 9 away games (33% win rate) and average 1.44 points away. The home side also scores 3.20 goals per game at home and concedes only 1.10, underscoring their dominance.
Over 2.5 goals 80.4%
Match result
Core markets
Flora U19 to win @ 6.00 model 60.2% vs 16.7% implied +43.5%
Home win offers massive +43% value
Our model assigns a 60.24% chance to a home victory, which is 43.57% higher than the implied 16.67% from the 6.0 odds, creating a strong value edge. Flora U19 have won a third of their home matches this season (33%) and average 3.17 goals at home while conceding just 1.33. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings they have never lost at home, recording two wins and three draws. This blend of form and H2H supports the home win value.
Skjetten to win 84.6%
Match result
Core markets
Skjetten to win @ 1.44 model 84.6% vs 69.4% implied +15.2%
Draw offers +7.2% value despite zero recent draws
Our model rates a draw at only 8.8% while the odds imply a 16% chance, creating a -7.21% value edge. In the last five meetings there has not been a single draw, and both sides have BTTS rates above 60%, making a stalemate unlikely – the market is over‑paying for a draw.
Under 2.5 goals 59.6%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75 model 59.6% vs 57.1% implied +2.5%
Stay clear of Atlético Tucumán win
Our model rates an away win at only 26.48% versus the implied 35.71% from the 2.8 odds, giving a -9.23% value edge. Tucumán have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, lost 4, scored 3 and conceded 10, and have never led at half‑time this season (0% HT win). The combination suggests a low probability of an upset.
Under 2.5 goals 57.8%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.50 model 42.2% vs 40% implied +2.2%
Low‑scoring showdown – Under 2.5 goals
Our model flags a -5.92% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. Santa Fe’s home matches have gone over 2.5 goals only 59% of the time, while Deportivo Cali’s away games exceed 2.5 goals in just 36% of outings. In the last five games each side recorded only 2 (Santa Fe) and 3 (Cali) matches with over 2.5 goals. The combined low‑scoring profile makes the under‑2.5 market attractive.
Birmingham Legion to win 57.6%
Match result
Core markets
Draw looks undervalued
Our model flags a -5.16% edge for a draw. Birmingham have failed to win in their last five (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and Brooklyn have only one win, two draws and two defeats in the same span. Both sides are struggling to secure victories, making a stalemate more likely than the market suggests.
Both teams to score 55.8%
Match result
Core markets
ADT to win @ 3.00 model 50.5% vs 33.3% implied +17.2%
Home win offers +16.5% edge
Our model shows a +16.5% value edge for ADT to win (model rating 50.51%, implied 34.01%). ADT have won 31% of their home games this season and have already taken 2 of the last 5 head‑to‑head encounters. The combination of a solid home win rate and a favourable H2H record underpins the positive edge.
América de Cali to win 60.9%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05 model 51.4% vs 48.8% implied +2.6%
Under 2.5 goals undervalued
Our model flags a -7.30% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. Cali’s matches go over 2.5 goals in only 40% of home games and Águilas in just 33% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 1.8 goals and only two exceeded 2.5, reinforcing the low‑scoring outlook.
Both teams to score 54.7%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 46.1% vs 42.6% implied +3.5%
Over 2.5 Goals – strong late‑game edge
Our model shows a -8.23% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model probability 53.88% vs implied 62.11%). Seattle’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 55% of home games, while Real Salt Lake does so in 67% of away games. Moreover, 73% of Seattle’s home games and 75% of Real Salt Lake’s away games feature total goals after the 70th minute, suggesting plenty of late scoring to push the total past 2.5.
Both teams to score 55.5%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 model 49.4% vs 44.4% implied +5%
Home win +6.5% value edge
Our model assigns a +6.46% value edge to a Galway United victory. The team have won three of their last five home games and boast a 60% home win rate this season, indicating solid form at Eamonn Deacy Park. Combined with the positive model rating, the home side looks well‑placed to capitalize.
Both teams to score 60.1%
Match result
Core markets
Value Bet: Louisville City to Win Away
Our model shows a -7.53% value edge for Louisville City to win, with a model probability of 40.78% versus the odds‑implied 48.31% (2.07). Despite only one win in their last five and a three‑match unbeaten run, Louisville’s away form includes a high 83% BTTS rate, suggesting they can still secure a win at a price that exceeds our expectation.
Both teams to score 57.7%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 Goals – +5.4% Value Edge
Our model shows a -5.36% value edge for an Under 2.5‑goals market (model rating 46.19% vs implied 51.55%). Tulsa’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in only 33% of their games overall and 50% when playing away, while El Paso’s over‑2.5 rate at home sits at 64%. In the last five meetings each side has produced over 2.5 goals four times for El Paso and three times for Tulsa, indicating a modest scoring trend that supports the lower‑goal line.
Under 2.5 goals 61.5%
Match result
Core markets
Deportivo Pasto to win @ 3.20 model 34.3% vs 31.3% implied +3%
Under 2.5 Goals – Strong Value Edge
Our model flags a -6.51% value edge for the Under 2.5‑goals market. Boyacá Chicó averages just 0.79 goals per game overall and only 38% of its home matches have gone over 2.5 goals. With just 15% of its goals coming after the 70th minute, the likelihood of a high‑scoring affair is low, supporting the value in betting under 2.5.
Under 2.5 goals 56.5%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 43.5% vs 42.6% implied +0.9%
Over 2.5 goals offers +5% value
Our model shows a -5.01% value edge for the Over 2.5‑goals market. The home side exceeds the 2.5‑goal line in half of its home matches, while the visitors do so in 56% of their away games, indicating a strong likelihood of a high‑scoring encounter.
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Every probability on this page is produced by our AI model. It combines team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every covered match.
For every fixture we publish the model's strongest call, win/draw/away probabilities, BTTS and Over 2.5 probabilities, the most likely scorelines, and a Value Edge where the model disagrees with the bookmaker's pricing.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated stamp above always reflects the most recent refresh.
Each prediction is generated by combining team form, expected goals (xG), historical scoring trends, head-to-head data and current bookmaker odds across the leagues we cover. The model is re-run every few hours, so the predictions on this page always reflect the latest market and team data.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability is the model's estimated chance that both sides will score at least one goal. A BTTS probability above 60% is treated as a strong signal; below 45% is weak. You can compare BTTS trends across leagues on our BTTS statistics page.
Value Edge is the gap between our AI's probability for an outcome and the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds. A positive Value Edge means the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than our model expects, which is what we flag as a value bet.
Our model is back-tested on tens of thousands of historical football matches and is regularly recalibrated. Accuracy varies by market — main result markets sit around industry benchmarks, while BTTS and Over 2.5 markets tend to score higher. No prediction is guaranteed; we recommend pairing them with our value bets and dropping odds tools before staking.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when bookmaker odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated timestamp at the top of the page reflects the most recent refresh.
Yes. The top insight for every fixture is free to view. OddAlerts Pro members also get access to additional insights per match, custom filters, and the full AI match report.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
