Model probabilities for every upcoming match — 1X2, BTTS, Over 2.5 & correct score — refreshed daily
Both teams to score 52.3%
Match result
Core markets
Draw looks overpriced
Our model shows a -5.76% value gap on the draw. Both sides have low draw rates this season – the home side draws only 11% of home games and the visitors 25% away. In the last five matches the home team managed just one draw and the away side none, confirming draws are unlikely.
Maitland Res. to win 68.8%
Match result
Core markets
Maitland Res. to win @ 1.50 model 68.8% vs 66.7% implied +2.1%
Away win offers ~7% value edge
Our model assigns a 64.5% chance of an away victory, while the bookmaker’s odds imply 71.4%, creating a –6.9% value edge. Maitland have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding only 6, and overall win 38% of their games. Kahibah have managed just 1 win in 8 home matches (13% home win rate) and scored only 14 at home. The contrast supports the value on an away win.
Over 2.5 goals 71.6%
Match result
Core markets
Brindabella Blues to win @ 4.75 model 28.2% vs 21.1% implied +7.1%
Surprising value on Brindabella win
Our model rates a home win at 27.90% versus the market implied 21.05%, creating a +6.85% value edge. Brindabella have struggled recently – only 1 win and 4 losses in their last five, scoring just 3 goals and recording a BTTS rate of 20% (1 of 5). Despite this poor form, the model still spots upside, suggesting a potential upset value bet.
Over 2.5 goals 69.6%
Match result
Core markets
NiemU to win @ 1.95 model 54.8% vs 51.3% implied +3.5%
Home win overvalued by ~11%
Our model shows a -10.97% value edge for a PK‑37 win (model probability 25.39% versus the market implied 36.36%). PK‑37 have won 3 of their last 5 matches and sit on a 4‑game unbeaten run, while the head‑to‑head record is balanced (2 wins each and 1 draw). This suggests the market may be over‑pricing the home side despite their recent form.
Over 2.5 goals 79.6%
Match result
Core markets
Home win looks overpriced
Our model flags a -6.29% value edge on the home win. The hosts have only a 36% overall win rate and 43% at home, with just 2 wins in their last 5 matches while conceding 15 goals. These figures suggest the odds are too generous for a home victory.
HJK W to win 83.9%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 Goals overpriced
Our model assigns a 68.5% chance of over 2.5 goals, yet the market implies 73.5% (odds 1.36), giving a -5.0% value edge. Both sides average over 2.5 goals in 71% of their games this season and each has hit the over‑2.5 line twice in their last five matches, so the market is slightly overstating the likelihood.
Over 2.5 goals 86.4%
Match result
Core markets
Mid-Ulster W to win @ 3.40 model 44.1% vs 29.4% implied +14.7%
Mid‑Ulster win offers +14.7% value
Our model shows a +14.70% value edge for an away win, despite Mid‑Ulster’s three‑match losing streak. They have secured 2 wins in their last 5 and have been involved in both‑teams‑to‑score in all those games (3 BTTS). The only recent head‑to‑head meeting was a 2‑2 draw with four goals, indicating they can compete.
Over 2.5 goals 74.9%
Match result
Core markets
St. James' Swifts W to win @ 6.00 model 35.3% vs 16.7% implied +18.6%
Home side dominates despite short odds
Our model rates a home win at 44.9% while the market implies 63.7%, creating an -18.79% value gap. Bangor have won 71% of their home fixtures and average over 3 goals per game at Clandeboye Park. St James’ have only a 50% win rate away and have secured just one victory in their last five outings, underscoring the home side’s advantage.
Over 2.5 goals 85.2%
Match result
Core markets
Fram W to win @ 12.00 model 14.9% vs 8.3% implied +6.6%
Away win heavily overvalued
Our model shows a -14.93% value edge for an away win. FH W have won 69% of all matches and 57% of their away games, scoring an average of 3.54 goals and featuring BTTS in 92% of games. They are unbeaten in their last five matches (current unbeaten streak of 5). Fram W have only a 14% overall win rate and BTTS in 43% overall. The combination of FH’s dominant form and the strong negative value suggests the odds (1.16) overprice the result.
Breidablik W to win 61.6%
Match result
Core markets
Grindavík / Njardvík W to win @ 5.25 model 19.7% vs 19% implied +0.7%
Home win overvalued –11.4%
Our model shows the home win market is -11.44% value, meaning the odds are too short. Breidablik win 71% of their home games this season and have taken 3 of their last 5, while Grindavík only win 29% of away matches and are coming off a loss. The strong home form versus the weak away record suggests the market is over‑priced.
Forward Madison to win 62.3%
Match result
Core markets
Forward Madison to win @ 1.83 model 62.3% vs 54.6% implied +7.7%
Madison's home dominance suggests a safe win
Our model rates a home win at 62.25% while the bookmaker’s odds imply 67.11%, giving a –4.86% value edge. Forward Madison have won 7 of 8 home games (88% win rate) and have never lost at halftime at home (100% halftime lead). In their last five matches they secured four victories. The combination points to a strong likelihood of a home win despite the modest negative value.
Antofagasta to win 59.5%
Match result
Core markets
Antofagasta to win @ 1.83 model 59.5% vs 54.6% implied +4.9%
Draw offers hidden value
Our model rates the draw at about 23% while the market odds imply roughly 28% probability, creating a -5.6% value edge. Both sides have rarely drawn recently – Antofagasta has no draws in its last five matches and Wanderers have just one. Overall the season draw rates are only 28% at home and 33% away, and the last five head‑to‑head meetings produced only a single draw. The combination suggests the draw is overpriced and could be a value play.
TP-T to win 88.1%
Match result
Core markets
Home side a virtual certainty
Our model rates a home victory at 88.08% with an implied probability of 92.59% versus odds of 1.08, indicating a strong edge. The hosts have only won 29% of their home games this season, yet the model’s confidence far exceeds that historical rate, suggesting the odds are overly generous on the home win.
Over 2.5 goals 72.9%
Match result
Core markets
SJK-j to win @ 5.00 model 35.5% vs 20% implied +15.5%
Home win offers +15% value edge
Our model rates a home victory at 35.5% while the market implies only 20%, giving a +15.5% value edge. SJK‑j scores almost 2.9 goals per home game and wins 43% of its home fixtures this season, reinforcing the upside.
Over 2.5 goals 84.5%
Match result
Core markets
PPS to win @ 8.00 model 16.8% vs 12.5% implied +4.3%
Home win offers -14% value, form warns
Our model rates a home victory at 70.6% but the market implies 84.8%, giving a -14.15% value gap. HPS II have won only 29% of their home games this season and in the last five matches they have zero wins, one draw and four losses, earning just one point. The combination of a large negative value and poor recent home form suggests avoiding a home‑win bet.
Over 2.5 goals 65.7%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 3.00 model 36.8% vs 33.3% implied +3.5%
Draw odds overpriced – avoid the stalemate
Our model shows the draw market is -5.23% value, meaning the odds (3.8) imply a 26.32% chance while the model rates it only 21.09%. The away side draws in 38% of its away games, but the home side has recorded zero draws at home this season. This mismatch suggests the true draw probability is well below the odds, making the draw an unattractive bet.
Over 2.5 goals 68.9%
Match result
Core markets
Olympic FC Brisbane to win @ 2.25 model 46.7% vs 44.4% implied +2.3%
Draw appears over‑priced
Our model flags a –5.27% edge on the draw, meaning the odds are too short. Both sides rarely settle for a stalemate – the home side has recorded zero draws at home this season and the visitors have managed draws in only 30% of their away games, with none in their last five meetings. The market is therefore overvaluing a draw.
Over 2.5 goals 74.9%
Match result
Core markets
Draw likely – value edge
Our model shows a -5.71% value edge on the draw. Peninsula Power have failed to win any of their last five, drawing three and losing two, while Brisbane City are on a three‑match unbeaten run without a win. The combination of a winless home side and a resilient away side makes a stalemate more probable.
Over 2.5 goals 78.8%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.30 model 78.8% vs 76.9% implied +1.9%
Home win undervalued despite unbeaten run
Our model shows a -5.70% value edge for a home win (model rating 58.82% vs implied 64.52% from odds 1.55). Wynnum Wolves have gone unbeaten in their last five matches (2 wins, 3 draws) and win 40% of their home games this season. Magic United win only 30% of away games and have just 3 wins in their last five. The combination suggests the home side is better positioned than the market reflects.
Over 2.5 goals 77.8%
Match result
Core markets
Queensland Lions to win @ 2.25 model 51.3% vs 44.4% implied +6.9%
Queensland Lions primed for win
Our model assigns a +6.46% value edge to an away victory (model rating 51.30% vs implied 44.84%). The Lions boast a 70% away win rate and 76% overall win rate this season, with four wins and a draw in their last five matches and a five‑game unbeaten run, underscoring their strong form.
Both teams to score 64.5%
Match result
Core markets
Altona Magic to win @ 2.90 model 47.6% vs 34.5% implied +13.1%
Altona Magic away win +13% edge
Our model assigns a +13.26% value edge to an Altona Magic victory, with current odds implying a 34.48% chance. The Magic have won 45% of their away games this season and collected 2 wins, 2 draws and only 1 loss in their last five outings, showing solid form on the road. Combined, the statistical edge and recent away performance support backing the away win.
Shandong Taishan to win 69.4%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 model 38.9% vs 32.3% implied +6.6%
Low‑scoring trend fuels Under 2.5 value
Our model flags a +6.63% edge for an Under 2.5‑goal result. Shandong have managed only 7 goals in their last five games, while Qingdao have scored just 2 in the same span. Qingdao’s away scoring average sits at a modest 1.18 per match, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight affair.
Over 2.5 goals 71.3%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 Goals – market overprices
Our model shows a -7.64% value edge for Under 2.5 Goals, meaning the odds overvalue this low‑scoring outcome. Both sides average almost 3 goals per game (home 1.82, away 1.16). Nõmme United’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 95% of all games and 100% at home, while Tammeka does it in 67% of away games. The combined scoring trend strongly favours more than 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score 58.9%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 2.75 model 41.1% vs 36.4% implied +4.7%
Over 2.5 goals likely, odds overpriced
Our model rates the over‑2.5‑goals market at 57.39% but the current odds imply a 66.67% chance, giving a –9.28% value edge. Rosenborg’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals in 63% of matches and Viking’s away fixtures in 56% of games. The last five meetings averaged 3.2 goals, with four of those matches exceeding 2.5. The market therefore appears to overvalue the over‑2.5 option.
Both teams to score 59.5%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 model 45.4% vs 44.4% implied +1%
Örebro win offers hidden value
Our model shows a -6.01% value edge for an Örebro win. Örebro have failed to win any of their last five matches (0 wins) and none in the last ten, scoring only 4 goals while conceding 11, and are on a two‑game losing streak. This poor form aligns with the model’s lower win probability versus the market’s implied 33.33%.
Both teams to score 58%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS Yes overvalued – -5.68% edge
Our model rates both‑teams‑to‑score at 58% versus the market implied 63.7% (odds 1.57), giving a -5.68% indication. Landskrona hit BTTS in 50% of their games this season and Oddevold in 67%. In the last five matches each side produced BTTS twice. Head‑to‑head shows BTTS in 4 of the 5 meetings (80%). Despite this strong propensity, the market appears overpriced.
Both teams to score 57.9%
Match result
Core markets
Västerås SK to win @ 3.75 model 32.4% vs 26.7% implied +5.7%
Home win looks overpriced
Our model rates a home win at 41.69% versus the market implied 52.6%, giving a -10.94% value edge. Elfsborg have won only 2 of their last 5 and are on a three‑game losing streak, with just 38% of home games won this season. The combination suggests the 1.90 odds are too short.
Under 2.5 goals 53.9%
Match result
Core markets
Both teams to score @ 2.10 model 49.9% vs 47.6% implied +2.3%
Draw offers solid value (-5.7%)
Our model flags a -5.69% edge on the draw. Both sides have struggled to win lately – the home side has secured only one victory in its last five games and drawn twice, while the visitors have managed just one win and three draws in the same span. Moreover, the home team wins only 40% of its matches at home and the away side wins merely 10% on the road, making a stalemate highly probable.
Under 2.5 goals 52.5%
Match result
Core markets
Bet on No BTTS – strong value edge
Our model shows a -6.69% value for No Both Teams to Score (rating 47.95 vs implied 54.64%). Only 1 of the last 5 head‑to‑head games featured BTTS (20%). This season the home side BTTS in 64% of home matches and the visitors in 55% of away matches, still indicating a low chance both will score.
Both teams to score 55.9%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 model 46.8% vs 46.5% implied +0.3%
Goal fest? Over 2.5 goals looks cheap
Our model rates the Over 2.5‑goals market at 53.2 % versus an implied 58.8 % from the odds, giving a –5.63 % value edge. The home side’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 86 % of their home games, while the visitors exceed that mark in 33 % of their away fixtures. Together with a season‑average of 59 % of games producing total goals after the 70th minute, the odds appear generous for a high‑scoring game.
Cusco FC to win 67.2%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 2.00 model 52.4% vs 50% implied +2.4%
Over 2.5 goals overvalued – avoid the hype
Our model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 55.94% while the market implies 68.49%, giving a -12.55% value edge. Cusco FC exceed 2.5 goals in only half of their home matches (50%) and ADC Juan Pablo II do so in 70% of their away games, indicating the total‑goal line is likely tighter than the odds suggest.
Both teams to score 55.3%
Match result
Core markets
Los Chankas to win @ 3.00 model 36.3% vs 33.3% implied +3%
Melgar away win offers ~9% value
Our model rates a Melgar away win at 36.73% while the market implies 45.45%, creating a -8.72% value edge. Melgar have been unbeaten in their last four away games, earning 8 points from the previous five, and despite a season away‑win rate of only 30%, the model still sees a realistic chance, indicating the offered odds are overpriced.
Deportivo Morón to win 60.4%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.70 model 37.8% vs 37% implied +0.8%
Under 2.5 Goals – Strong Value Edge
Our model shows a -7.31% value discrepancy for the Under 2.5 Goals market (model rating 62.13% vs implied 69.44%). Both sides are low‑scoring: the home side’s matches go over 2.5 goals in only 42% of home games, and the visitors exceed 2.5 goals in just 33% of away games. The last five head‑to‑heads averaged only 1.4 goals with a single over‑2.5 result. These factors support a bet on under 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals 65.2%
Match result
Core markets
Draw market overvalued – -5.65% edge
Our model shows a -5.65% value discrepancy for a draw (odds 2.94 imply 34% probability versus a model estimate of 28%). Both sides have low draw rates this season – the home side draws only 25% of its home games and the visitors just 18% away. In the last five fixtures the home team recorded only one draw and the away side none, reinforcing that a draw is less likely than the market suggests.
Under 2.5 goals 63.4%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS No looks undervalued
Our model rates a No‑Both‑Teams‑To‑Score outcome at 54.73% versus the market implied 59.88%, creating a -5.15% value edge. Both sides rarely hit BTTS this season – the home side has a 19% overall BTTS rate and 0% at home, while the visitors are at 38% overall (36% away). In the last five meetings each team managed BTTS only three times combined, underscoring the low probability.
Independiente del Valle to win 84.7%
Match result
Core markets
Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.20 model 84.7% vs 83.3% implied +1.4%
BTTS Yes? Market Overpriced
Our model shows a -5.05% value edge for Both Teams to Score – Yes (model probability 35.77% vs implied 40.82%). Independiente hits BTTS in 46% of its games overall (42% at home) while Delfín does so in only 30% overall (33% away). The low combined BTTS frequency aligns with the model’s view that the market is over‑pricing this outcome.
Both teams to score 54.1%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60 model 47% vs 38.5% implied +8.5%
Home win odds over‑priced –21.8% edge
Our model rates a home win at about 52% while the market implies roughly 74%, creating a -21.8% value gap. Vancouver FC wins more than half of its home games (56% win rate) and averages 1.78 points per home match. They have also secured four victories in their last five outings. The combination of strong home form and the negative value suggests the odds are too generous for a home win.
Under 2.5 goals 52.7%
Match result
Core markets
Home win overpriced – look elsewhere
Our model gives the home win a 44.16% chance versus a 50% implied probability, creating a –5.84% value gap. Yet the home side wins 71% of its home games, while the visitors win 75% of their away matches, indicating a tight contest. The market is over‑rating the home win, so a stake on this outcome may be unattractive.
Both teams to score 65.1%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.68 model 64.5% vs 59.5% implied +5%
Under 2.5 Goals – hidden value
Our model shows a -10.98% edge for the Under 2.5‑goals market, meaning the odds are generous for the low‑scoring outcome. Both sides normally feature plenty of goals – Heidelberg’s matches go over 2.5 in 55% of home games and Hume’s away fixtures exceed the mark in 73% of outings – yet the last five head‑to‑head meetings produced only two over‑2.5 results and an average of 2.8 goals, suggesting a tighter contest is plausible.
Both teams to score 55.7%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 model 48.1% vs 45.5% implied +2.6%
Home win appears overpriced
Our model flags a -9.23% value edge on the home win – the model estimates a 44.8% chance versus the market‑implied 54.0%. While Suwon Bluewings win 60% of their home games overall, they have only 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last five, and the visitors have gone unbeaten in three of their last five with a recent win. The combination suggests the home win is over‑valued.
Under 2.5 goals 56.5%
Match result
Core markets
Gimhae City to win @ 3.30 model 37.1% vs 30.3% implied +6.8%
Home win undervalued despite scoring trends
Gimhae City have yet to win at home this season (0 wins in 8 home games, 0% home win rate) yet 75% of their home matches feature both teams scoring and 75% go over 2.5 goals. Our model assigns a +7.21% edge to a home victory, indicating the market is undervaluing their scoring propensity.
Under 2.5 goals 54.6%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 model 54.6% vs 52.6% implied +2%
Over 2.5 goals likely overpriced
Our model shows a -7.21% value edge against the current odds for Over 2.5 goals. Cheongju's matches exceed 2.5 goals in just half of their home games this season, while Jeonnam does so in 58% of away fixtures. Both sides have struggled to find the net recently – Cheongju scored five and Jeonnam six in their last five outings. These factors support a lower probability than the market suggests.
Both teams to score 58.2%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.85 model 44.4% vs 35.1% implied +9.3%
Under 2.5 Goals offers +9% edge
Our model shows a +9.30% value edge on the Under 2.5 Goals market (model probability 44.39% vs implied 35.09%). Both sides are not prolific over 2.5: Zhejiang's matches go over 2.5 in only half of their home games, while Chengdu does so in 45% of away fixtures. Moreover, in their last five meetings each side has produced over‑2‑goal games in just 4 and 2 matches respectively, underscoring a lower scoring outlook.
Both teams to score 52.8%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 2.20 model 47.2% vs 45.5% implied +1.7%
Over 2.5 Goals market over‑priced
Our model assigns a 50.38% chance of more than 2.5 goals, yet the odds imply 59.52%, a -9.14% value gap. Both sides are not heavy on high‑scoring games – the home side exceeds 2.5 goals in 70% of its home matches and the visitors in 56% of their away games, while their overall season rates sit at 52% and 62% respectively. The market’s expectation exceeds the statistical reality.
Shanghai Shenhua to win 55.8%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 model 43.5% vs 36.4% implied +7.1%
Low‑Scoring Edge
Our model flags a +5.98% value edge for Under 2.5 goals (odds 2.66). Both sides have produced over‑2‑goal games in only 2 of their last 5 matches (home 2, away 2), suggesting a recent dip in scoring despite higher season averages. This recent form supports the undervalued under‑2.5 market.
Both teams to score 57.3%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 model 45.7% vs 33.3% implied +12.4%
Under 2.5 Goals +10.7% Edge
Our model indicates a +10.67% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. The home side’s matches exceed 2.5 goals in 82% of its home games and the visitors in 60% of away games, yet the last five head‑to‑head meetings have averaged 3.2 goals. The market is therefore over‑valuing the low‑scoring line.
Both teams to score 56.3%
Match result
Core markets
Away win odds look overpriced
Our model rates the away win at 42.29% while the market implies 48.78%, a -6.49% discrepancy. Helsingborg have taken only 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last five, earning 7 points, and their overall win percentage (41%) is still well below Sundsvall’s home win rate (22%). In the head‑to‑head record the away side has not won any of the five meetings. All signs point to the odds being too short for an away victory.
Both teams to score 61.8%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 model 60.3% vs 57.8% implied +2.5%
Under 2.5 Goals – Value Edge
Our model rates the under‑2.5‑goals market at 39.81% versus an implied 47.17% from the 2.12 odds, creating a –7.36% value edge. United Nordic exceed 2.5 goals in 67% of their home games and Varberg BoIS do so in 88% of their away games. The only head‑to‑head meeting produced five goals, giving an average of 5.0 per game, so the odds look generous for a low‑scoring result.
Both teams to score 56.8%
Match result
Core markets
Norrby to win @ 4.00 model 32.5% vs 25% implied +7.5%
Norrby primed for upset win
Our model shows a +6.39% value edge for an away victory (model probability 32.43% vs implied 26.04%). Norrby have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and only 1 loss in their last five matches, currently on a one‑game unbeaten run. In the head‑to‑head record they have won three of the five meetings, including two recent away wins. This combination of positive model edge, solid recent form and H2H advantage supports backing Norrby to win.
Both teams to score 61.1%
Match result
Core markets
Mjällby to win @ 3.10 model 34.3% vs 32.3% implied +2%
Goal-fest likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model shows the under‑2.5 market is about 5 % overpriced, implying the over‑2.5 line is attractive. The last five meetings averaged 4.2 goals and four of them went over 2.5. Sirius scores over 2.5 in 88 % of its away games, while Mjällby reaches that mark in 47 % of its matches.
Both teams to score 60.7%
Match result
Core markets
Lillestrøm to win @ 2.45 model 40.9% vs 40.8% implied +0.1%
BTTS No offers +5% value edge
Our model shows a -5.09% value edge for BTTS No (rating 39.35% vs implied 44.44%). Both sides have low season BTTS rates – the home side at 33% and the visitors at just 13%. In the last five meetings only two featured both teams scoring, reinforcing the likelihood of a clean‑sheet for at least one side.
Over 2.5 goals 66.4%
Match result
Core markets
Odd's away win undervalued
Our model rates an Odd win at 41.74% versus the market implied 50% (value –8.26%). Odd have won half of all their league games (overall win % 50) and 43% of away fixtures. In the last five outings they earned three draws and a win, showing they are hard to beat. The combination of a strong season record and a clear value edge makes the away‑win market attractive.
Both teams to score 62.1%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.68 model 38% vs 37.3% implied +0.7%
Over 2.5 Goals – Strong value edge
Our model shows a -8.55% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model rating 61.87% vs implied 70.42%). Both sides are prone to high‑scoring games: Bryne’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 53% overall and 50% at home, while Moss does so in 88% overall and 100% in away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.2 goals and 4 of them were over 2.5. This convergence suggests the market is undervalued.
Over 2.5 goals 74.1%
Match result
Core markets
Ranheim to win @ 4.20 model 35.9% vs 23.8% implied +12.1%
Value Bet: Ranheim to win at home
Our model shows a +10.92% edge for a Ranheim home win versus the 4.01 odds. Ranheim have won 56% of their home games this season and average 3.11 goals at home. Strømsgodset win only 38% of their away matches, underscoring the home side’s advantage.
Both teams to score 54.6%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.25 model 50.3% vs 44.4% implied +5.9%
Goal feast ahead – Over 2.5 goals
Our model assigns a +5.81% value edge to the Over 2.5‑goals market (model rating 50.25% vs implied 44.44% from odds 2.25). Both sides exceed 2.5 goals in 64% of their games this season (Fluminense 64% at home, Palmeiras 64% away). Even though the last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged only 1.6 goals, the season‑long scoring trends suggest a goal‑rich encounter.
Both teams to score 56.1%
Match result
Core markets
San Antonio to win @ 2.25 model 45.7% vs 44.4% implied +1.3%
El Paso win looks overpriced
Our model flags a -7.89% edge on the away‑team victory. El Paso has won just 40% of its away games this season and, in the last five trips, managed three wins but is currently on a one‑match losing streak. Meanwhile San Antonio wins 56% of its home fixtures, giving the home side a stronger case despite the market odds.
Colorado Springs to win 69.2%
Match result
Core markets
Colorado Springs to win @ 1.48 model 69.2% vs 67.6% implied +1.6%
Draw Overpriced by 5.6%
The model assigns a -5.58% value edge to a draw. Colorado Springs have drawn only 22% of their games overall and none in their last five, while Birmingham have drawn 47% overall but just one in their last five. The scarcity of recent stalemates supports the market’s over‑pricing of a draw.
Both teams to score 65.7%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.55 model 35.4% vs 28.2% implied +7.2%
Orlando Home Win Undervalued
Our model rates an Orlando win at 40.59% versus the market‑implied 46.51%, creating a –5.92% value gap. Orlando has won 50% of its home games this season and is riding a two‑match winning streak, suggesting the true chance is higher than the odds reflect.
Both teams to score 62.7%
Match result
Core markets
New York RB to win @ 3.60 model 36.1% vs 27.8% implied +8.3%
NYRB Away Win Offers +8.3% Edge
Our model shows an +8.29% value edge for an away victory, with odds of 3.6 translating to a 27.78% implied chance. New York RB win 33% of their away games this season and have a two‑match unbeaten streak. In their last five outings they secured two wins, one draw and two losses, and they have not beaten Atlanta in the five recent head‑to‑heads (0 away wins).
Under 2.5 goals 53.9%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 model 53.9% vs 47.6% implied +6.3%
Under 2.5 Goals offers +6% value
Our model shows a +6.26% edge for Under 2.5 goals versus the current odds. The last five meetings averaged just 1.8 goals and only one (20%) went over 2.5. Toronto’s recent five games have produced only three goals while New England have six, keeping the average low. Together, the market and the low‑scoring head‑to‑head suggest the under is a smart play.
Both teams to score 56.5%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals undervalued
Our model shows a -5.37% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model rating 53.45% versus an implied 58.82% from odds of 1.7). Charlotte’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 70% of its home games this season, well above the league norm, supporting a high‑scoring outlook.
Both teams to score 56.7%
Match result
Core markets
LA Galaxy to win @ 4.50 model 24.9% vs 22.2% implied +2.7%
Home Dynamo strong but odds overpriced
Our model flags a -8.94% value edge on a Dynamo home win. The Dynamo win 67% of their home games and have taken four of their last five matches, sitting on a five‑game unbeaten run. In contrast, the Galaxy win only a third of their away fixtures and have managed just one win in their last five. The market’s implied 59.9% chance is well above the model’s 50.9%, suggesting the price is too generous.
Both teams to score 60.5%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.68 model 42% vs 37.3% implied +4.7%
Over 2.5 goals is undervalued
Our model flags a -9.55% value edge on Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.48, implied 67.6%). Nashville hits the over‑2.5 line in 78% of its home games and Inter Miami does so in 70% of its away matches. The last five head‑to‑heads averaged 2.6 goals, with three games (60%) going over 2.5. The convergence of model odds and strong seasonal over‑2.5 rates makes the market attractive.
Over 2.5 goals 64.9%
Match result
Core markets
Both teams to score @ 1.62 model 63.6% vs 61.7% implied +1.9%
Home win maybe overvalued
Our model shows a -5.31% value edge for Real Salt Lake to win, meaning the odds are likely too generous. This aligns with the season’s 88% home win rate, yet the club has only 1 win in the last five head‑to‑head meetings and Minnesota United have failed to win any of their last five away games (0 wins). The combination suggests the home win may be overvalued.
Under 2.5 goals 62.9%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.75 model 37.1% vs 36.4% implied +0.7%
Under 2.5 Goals – Strong Value Edge
Our model flags a -6.98% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. Platense averages just 0.60 goals per home game and only 30% of its home matches exceed 2.5 goals. Boca Juniors concedes merely 0.86 goals per game overall and keeps a clean sheet in 40% of its away fixtures. The combination of a low‑scoring home side and a defensively solid visitor points to a sub‑2.5‑goal outcome.
Alianza Lima to win 75.5%
Match result
Core markets
Both teams to score @ 2.38 model 49.8% vs 42% implied +7.8%
BTTS offers solid +7.8% edge
Our model shows a +7.80% value edge for Both Teams To Score. Alianza Lima hits BTTS in 52% of games overall and did so in all five of its last five matches; UTC Cajamarca does it in 62% overall and in four of its last five. These strong BTTS frequencies back the model’s positive value.
Both teams to score 57.1%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.85 model 46.8% vs 35.1% implied +11.7%
Under 2.5 goals – value edge
Our model shows a +11.70% value edge for Under 2.5 goals (odds 2.85 imply a 35.09% chance). Vålerenga have exceeded 2.5 goals in only 43% of their away matches and have not scored after the 70th minute at all this season. Aalesund, while often seeing over‑2.5 games overall (63% of all fixtures), rely on early scoring and concede late goals in 33% of home games, suggesting the encounter could stay below the threshold.
Over 2.5 goals 76.3%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 3.75 model 28.4% vs 26.7% implied +1.7%
Away win +6.7% value edge
Our model shows a -6.71% value edge for an away win. Haugesund have won four of their last five meetings and sit on a two‑game unbeaten streak. They average 3.22 goals per away match and score after the 70th minute in 67% of those games, underscoring their late‑game potency.
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Every probability on this page is produced by our AI model. It combines team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every covered match.
For every fixture we publish the model's strongest call, win/draw/away probabilities, BTTS and Over 2.5 probabilities, the most likely scorelines, and a Value Edge where the model disagrees with the bookmaker's pricing.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated stamp above always reflects the most recent refresh.
Each prediction is generated by combining team form, expected goals (xG), historical scoring trends, head-to-head data and current bookmaker odds across the leagues we cover. The model is re-run every few hours, so the predictions on this page always reflect the latest market and team data.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability is the model's estimated chance that both sides will score at least one goal. A BTTS probability above 60% is treated as a strong signal; below 45% is weak. You can compare BTTS trends across leagues on our BTTS statistics page.
Value Edge is the gap between our AI's probability for an outcome and the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds. A positive Value Edge means the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than our model expects, which is what we flag as a value bet.
Our model is back-tested on tens of thousands of historical football matches and is regularly recalibrated. Accuracy varies by market — main result markets sit around industry benchmarks, while BTTS and Over 2.5 markets tend to score higher. No prediction is guaranteed; we recommend pairing them with our value bets and dropping odds tools before staking.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when bookmaker odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated timestamp at the top of the page reflects the most recent refresh.
Yes. The top insight for every fixture is free to view. OddAlerts Pro members also get access to additional insights per match, custom filters, and the full AI match report.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
