Model probabilities for every upcoming match — 1X2, BTTS, Over 2.5 & correct score — refreshed daily
Seattle Sounders to win 63.8%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.87 model 43.3% vs 34.8% implied +8.5%
Under 2.5 Goals looks profitable
The model flags a +6.85% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. The last five meetings averaged only 1.8 goals and just one game went over 2.5. Seattle’s matches exceed 2.5 goals in only 31% of all games and Portland in 64% of away games, reinforcing a low‑scoring outlook.
Over 2.5 goals 63.1%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 model 63.1% vs 58.8% implied +4.3%
Under 2.5 goals priced with strong edge
Our model shows a -9.40% value gap for the Under 2.5‑goals market. Green Gully average just 0.60 goals per game at home and only 50% of their home matches exceed 2.5 goals. Dandenong score 1.00 per game away and 60% of their away games go over 2.5. The low scoring averages and modest over‑2.5 percentages point to a likely low‑scoring encounter, making the under attractive despite the odds.
Box Hill United W to win 68.2%
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Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 model 36.6% vs 36.4% implied +0.2%
Draw offers -7.3% value edge
Our model shows a -7.26% value edge on the draw (model rating 16.55, odds 4.20, implied 23.8%). Spring Hills average just 1.20 goals per home game and have only 1 BTTS in their last five, while Box Hill score 2.78 goals per away game but concede 1.56 per away match. The modest scoring rates on both sides raise the chance of a low‑scoring stalemate, making the draw attractive.
Over 2.5 goals 65.5%
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Adelaide Comets to win @ 3.90 model 27% vs 25.6% implied +1.4%
Home win overvalued –9.8% vs poor form
Our model rates a home win at 50.8% while the market implies 60.6%, giving a –9.84% value edge. Campbelltown City have won only 38% of their home games this season and managed just one victory in their last five outings (1‑2‑2 record). The combination of a negative model edge and weak home form suggests the home win is over‑priced.
West Torrens Birkalla to win 88.4%
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BTTS: No @ 1.90 model 53.1% vs 52.6% implied +0.5%
Home side dominates – huge value
Our model shows a -7.67% value edge for a home win. West Torrens Birkalla have won 75% of their home games and have not lost any at home this season, while Para Hills have failed to win a single match overall. This stark contrast reinforces the strong home win case.
Both teams to score 52.8%
Match result
Core markets
Hwacheon KSPO W to win @ 4.10 model 50.7% vs 24.4% implied +26.3%
Value Bet: Hwacheon KSPO to Win Away
Our model assigns a 50.74% chance to an away win, which is 26.35% higher than the market implied 24.39%, creating strong value. Hwacheon KSPO have won 80% of their away games this season and are on a three‑match winning streak. They also secured three of the last five head‑to‑head meetings, reinforcing their edge.
Melbourne Knights to win 64.8%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.44 model 72.6% vs 69.4% implied +3.2%
Home win offers solid value
Our model flags a -6.65% value edge for a Melbourne Knights victory. The Knights dominate at home, winning 80% of their home fixtures (8 wins from 10) and averaging 2.10 goals per game on their turf. Their recent form shows an unbeaten run and a BTTS streak, reinforcing the home advantage.
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 model 55% vs 43.5% implied +11.5%
Under 2.5 goals offers solid value
Our model flags a +9.59% edge for an Under‑2.5‑goals result. Qingdao’s matches go over 2.5 goals only a third of the time at home, and Chengdu exceed that mark in just over half of their games. Both clubs average under 1.5 goals per game (1.33 for Qingdao, 1.78 for Chengdu). Even though the last five head‑to‑heads have produced 3.6 goals on average, the season‑long scoring trends give the under‑2.5 market a clear value advantage.
Both teams to score 60.2%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 model 41.6% vs 32.3% implied +9.3%
No BTTS offers hidden value
Our model shows a +6.51% edge for a No BTTS result. Both sides historically see both teams score in roughly three‑quarters of matches (home 78%, away 76%) and every one of their last five games featured BTTS, yet the market appears to over‑price this outcome.
Over 2.5 goals 86.4%
Match result
Core markets
Palmerston Rovers to win @ 7.50 model 18.3% vs 13.3% implied +5%
Home win odds too short
Our model rates a home win at 68.94% versus an implied 81.97% from the market, creating a -13.03% value gap. Darwin Olympic have won only 1 of their last 5 matches, are on a one‑game losing streak and have managed just 29% wins at home this season, underscoring the over‑optimism in the price.
Perth W to win 95.7%
Match result
Core markets
Perth W to win @ 1.20 model 95.7% vs 83.3% implied +12.4%
Perth cruising to victory
Our model shows a +12.41% value edge for Perth to win. Perth have won every one of their six away games this season (100% away win rate) and are on a five‑match winning streak, scoring an average of 2.17 goals away while conceding just 0.17. They also beat Sorrento 2‑0 in the most recent head‑to‑head encounter. All these factors reinforce the strong upside on the away‑win market.
Over 2.5 goals 73.1%
Match result
Core markets
GrIFK to win @ 4.00 model 28.9% vs 25% implied +3.9%
GrIFK win edge despite odds
Our model gives a +5.9% value edge for a GrIFK victory at 4.36 odds. GrIFK have not lost in their last three fixtures and have opened the scoring in the first half of every home game this season (100%). This early‑goal habit, together with the unbeaten run, supports the upside despite a modest 33% home win rate.
Over 2.5 goals 82.6%
Match result
Core markets
Huima / Urho to win @ 2.15 model 53.3% vs 46.5% implied +6.8%
Back Huima/Urho to win away (+6.7% edge)
Our model gives a +6.71% value edge for an away win. Huima/Urho have won three of their last five matches and are unbeaten in three, scoring 14 goals (2.8 per game) while conceding only seven. Vaajakoski have only three wins in five at home and concede three goals per match. The sole head‑to‑head meeting, where Huima/Urho were home, ended 4‑2 in their favour, underscoring their attacking strength.
Over 2.5 goals 70%
Match result
Core markets
Nõmme United to win @ 7.50 model 27.5% vs 13.3% implied +14.2%
Home win heavily overvalued
Our model assigns a 51.57% probability to Flora winning, while the current odds translate to a 96.15% implied chance – a -44.58% value discrepancy. Flora win 63% of their home games this season, yet the market dramatically overstates their likelihood, making the home‑win market unattractive.
Kings to win 71.4%
Match result
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Draw @ 9.00 model 13.4% vs 11.1% implied +2.3%
Home win offers +7.6% value
Our model rates a ToU victory at 15.26% while the 13.00 odds imply only 7.69%, creating a +7.57% edge. ToU’s home record shows a 50% win rate, an average of 1.75 goals per game and every home match has gone over 2.5 goals with both sides scoring, suggesting they can capitalize on home advantage despite recent mixed form.
Both teams to score 57.5%
Match result
Core markets
Brommapojkarna to win @ 3.75 model 34.9% vs 26.7% implied +8.2%
Away win offers +9.3% value
Our model flags a +9.33% edge on an away victory. Brommapojkarna have won 43% of their away matches and score 1.57 goals per away game. They are unbeaten in their last four fixtures and have a two‑game winning streak. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings they have triumphed four times, including a 3‑1 win last June. The combination of strong away form and dominant H2H record supports the value.
Bodø / Glimt to win 72.1%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 3.60 model 34.4% vs 27.8% implied +6.6%
Home side dominates – value edge
Our model rates a home win at 72.12% but the market implies 87.72%, giving a -15.6% value edge. Bodø/Glimt have won 80% of their home games this season and are unbeaten in their last five, including four wins in the last five fixtures. This form backs the undervalued odds.
Under 2.5 goals 70.2%
Match result
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Victoriano Arenas to win @ 3.75 model 34.5% vs 26.7% implied +7.8%
Home win appears overpriced
Our model rates a home win at 33.39% while the odds imply a 41.67% chance, creating a -8.28% value gap – the market is too short. Deportivo Español have only a 33% win rate at home this season and have won three of their last five home games. Victoriano Arenas win just 22% of their away matches and have only one away win in their last five, reinforcing the low likelihood of a home victory.
Under 2.5 goals 53.6%
Match result
Core markets
Juventud to win @ 3.50 model 32.3% vs 28.6% implied +3.7%
Home win offers poor value
Our model rates the home win at 41.08% versus the implied 47.62% from the 2.10 odds, a –6.54% value gap. Albion have managed just one win in their last five home fixtures, a 40% home win rate and only 1.40 points per home game this season. The combination of poor recent form and the negative value suggests the home win is not a worthwhile wager.
Both teams to score 52.3%
Match result
Core markets
FC Cajamarca to win @ 2.10 model 50.5% vs 47.6% implied +2.9%
Over 2.5 goals overpriced
Our model flags a -6.12% value edge on Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.72, implied 58.14%). The home side has gone over 2.5 in 63% of its home matches and the visitors in 75% of their away games, while the sole head‑to‑head meeting produced a 6‑goal thriller. Despite these high‑scoring indicators, the market is priced too low for value.
Sporting Cristal to win 69.7%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 Goals over‑priced
Sporting Cristal have hit the over‑2.5 mark in 100% of their home games this season, while Garcilaso manage it in only 25% of away matches. The last five head‑to‑heads averaged 2.8 goals with two games over 2.5. Yet our model rates the chance at 53% and flags a –9.48% value gap versus the bookmaker’s 62.5% implied probability, meaning the Over 2.5 odds are too generous.
Over 2.5 goals 70.7%
Match result
Core markets
KH Hlidarendi to win @ 3.40 model 42.2% vs 29.4% implied +12.8%
Away win with +15% value edge
Our model shows a +15.39% value edge for an away victory. KH Hlidarendi have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are on a 3‑game unbeaten run, while averaging 3.60 goals per away game. Víðir have only 3 wins in their last 5 and score 2.40 goals per home game, indicating the visitors are in better recent form and firepower.
Over 2.5 goals 77.2%
Match result
Core markets
KA Asvellir to win @ 5.50 model 35.7% vs 18.2% implied +17.5%
Home win odds heavily overpriced
Our model rates a home win at about 45% while the bookmaker’s odds imply an 82% chance, creating a –36.7% value gap. Tindastóll, however, has dominated at home this season – winning 83% of home matches, averaging 2.83 goals per game and seeing over 2.5 goals in every home fixture. The stark contrast suggests the market has over‑valued the home win despite solid home form, so betting on a home victory offers poor value.
Over 2.5 goals 70.5%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50 model 70.5% vs 66.7% implied +3.8%
Draw offers hidden value
The model shows a -7.17% edge for a draw, meaning the bookmaker may be over‑pricing this outcome. Both sides have virtually no draws this season – the home side has a 0% draw rate overall and none in its last five games, while the visitors have only a 15% overall draw rate and also none recently. The scarcity of draws combined with the odds discrepancy creates a potential value play.
Over 2.5 goals 78.6%
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Over 2.5 goals: market overvalues
Our model shows a -6.17% value edge for Over 2.5 goals. Both clubs exceed two‑and‑a‑half goals in the vast majority of their matches – the home side does so in 86% of home games and the visitors in 100% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 4.8 goals, with every match going over 2.5. The market odds (1.18) therefore appear too generous for this market.
Over 2.5 goals 83.1%
Match result
Core markets
KFR to win @ 6.25 model 30.7% vs 16% implied +14.7%
Home win offers +21% value
Our model rates a home victory at about 30.6% probability while the bookmaker odds imply only 9.2%, giving a +21.4% value edge. KFR have no wins in their last five and a season win rate of just 20%, yet they have already secured one win in the three recent head‑to‑head meetings, indicating a possible upset worth the value.
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Match result
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Over 2.5 goals @ 3.10 model 34% vs 32.3% implied +1.7%
Under 2.5 Goals – Strong Value Edge
Our model assigns a 66.04% win probability to the Under 2.5‑goals market, while the bookmaker’s odds (1.39) imply a 71.94% chance. This creates a –5.90% value edge. The last five meetings averaged just 1.4 goals and only one match exceeded 2.5, and Juventude’s games go over 2.5 at home in only 22% of outings, reinforcing the low‑scoring outlook.
Bahia to win 66.4%
Match result
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 50.7% vs 42.6% implied +8.1%
Under 2.5 Goals – +8% Edge
Our model shows an +8.21% value edge for Under 2.5 goals versus the market odds. Bahia’s matches go over 2.5 goals in only 56% of their home games, while Chapecoense manage that in just 25% of their away fixtures. Moreover, Bahia scores 1.56 goals per home game and Chapecoense only 0.50 per away game, reinforcing the likelihood of a low‑scoring encounter.
Under 2.5 goals 72.1%
Match result
Core markets
Draw offers >5% value edge
Our model rates a draw at 31.10% versus an implied 37.04% from the odds, creating a –5.94% value edge. Temperley are unbeaten in their last five games (2 wins, 3 draws) and have a 56% home win rate, while Atlético Rafaela have won only 10% of away matches and have not won in their last five away fixtures. The combination makes a draw a value bet.
Both teams to score 58.9%
Match result
Core markets
Toronto II to win @ 2.20 model 49.4% vs 45.5% implied +3.9%
Away win odds overvalue Cincinnati II
Our model rates an away victory at only 27% while the market implies 37%, giving a -9.8% value edge. Cincinnati II have failed to win any of their seven away games, losing every one and scoring just 0.29 goals per visit. Toronto’s home record is modest (4 wins from 8) but they have lost their last five. The combination of Cincinnati’s abysmal away form and the generous odds makes the away win a value bet.
Over 2.5 goals 56.4%
Match result
Core markets
Asheville City to win @ 3.75 model 47.8% vs 26.7% implied +21.1%
Asheville City primed for upset win
Our model shows a +21.45% edge for an Asheville City victory. The visitors have won four of their last five matches and are on a five‑game unbeaten run, scoring 1.86 goals per away game this season. Meanwhile Lionsbridge’s odds are priced far above the model’s 48% implied chance, making the away win a strong value pick.
Both teams to score 52.5%
Match result
Core markets
Home side's perfect record offers value
Our model shows a -5.07% edge on the home win, meaning the market may be overpricing it. Kansas City have won every home match this season (100% home win rate) and are on a two‑game winning streak, reinforcing their strength at CPKC Stadium.
Nelson Suburbs to win 86.7%
Match result
Core markets
Away win offers hidden value
Our model shows a -5.85% value edge for an away win (rating 86.74% vs implied 92.59%, odds 1.08). Nelson Suburbs have won their last five matches, are unbeaten in five, score 2.33 goals per away game and concede just 1.92, while Selwyn United have lost all five recent games, score only 1.5 at home and concede 2.67. The contrast supports the value in backing the away side.
Under 2.5 goals 53.6%
Match result
Core markets
Operário PR to win @ 4.20 model 27.3% vs 23.8% implied +3.5%
Home win looks overpriced
Our model flags a -9.77% edge on the home‑win odds (1.83). Sport Recife have failed to win in their last five, managing only two draws, while Operário have secured four victories in the same span. The home side’s season‑long home win rate sits at 33%, far below the away side’s overall win rate of 53%, suggesting the market is generous to the hosts.
Nashville SC to win 58.6%
Match result
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Draw @ 4.75 model 23.5% vs 21.1% implied +2.4%
Nashville's home dominance – value on win
Our model flags a -11.93% value edge on the home win. Nashville have won 86% of their home games (6 of 7) and have not lost at home this season. Their recent five matches include three victories, one draw and one loss, underscoring strong form. The odds (1.42) overprice the result.
Both teams to score 58.8%
Match result
Core markets
LA Galaxy to win @ 3.00 model 40.7% vs 33.3% implied +7.4%
Over 2.5 goals likely over‑priced
Our model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 56.2% while the market implies 63.7%, creating a -7.5% value edge. Both clubs exceed 2.5 goals in only 57% of their home and away matches respectively, reinforcing that the over‑2.5 market is overpriced.
Both teams to score 52.9%
Match result
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Melgar to win @ 4.00 model 28.3% vs 25% implied +3.3%
Home win overvalued despite strong form
Our model rates Cienciano’s chance to win at 44.29% versus the market implied 54.05%, a -9.76% value gap. Yet Cienciano have won 78% of their home games this season and secured 4 wins in their last 5 home fixtures, showing strong home form. The market therefore overprices the home win.
Over 2.5 goals 73.9%
Match result
Core markets
Gold Coast United U23 to win @ 5.25 model 31.1% vs 19% implied +12.1%
Home win carries +12% value edge
Our model shows a +12.07% value advantage for a Gold Coast United U23 victory, with odds of 5.25 translating to a 19.05% implied chance. The hosts have won 75% of their home games this season (6 wins from 8) and sit on a five‑match winning streak, while the Lions manage only a 44% win rate away. The combination of strong home form and the model’s positive edge makes the home win a compelling bet.
Over 2.5 goals 75.1%
Match result
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Wolves U23 to win @ 4.00 model 26.3% vs 25% implied +1.3%
Home side primed for win
Our model flags a -7.6% value edge on the home win while the market offers odds of 1.57. The Knights have won 4 of their last 5 matches and enjoy a 71% home win rate this season, scoring 2.86 goals per home game. Their recent form and strong home record suggest the odds are generous.
Over 2.5 goals 79.2%
Match result
Core markets
Brisbane City U23 to win @ 5.25 model 26.8% vs 19% implied +7.8%
Value Bet: Brisbane City Away Win
Our model assigns a 26.8% chance of an away win, which is 7.8% higher than the market’s implied 19.0% (odds 5.25). Despite Brisbane City U23 losing all five of their recent matches (0‑5‑0, 5 goals for, 15 against), the model still spots value, suggesting a surprise away victory could be profitable.
Eastern Suburbs U23 to win 84.9%
Match result
Core markets
Home win offers strong value
Our model shows a -7.68% value edge on the home win at odds of 1.08. Eastern Suburbs have won more than half of their home games (56%) and average 1.89 points per home match, while Magic United have failed to win any away fixture (0% away wins) and average just 0.11 points on the road. The home side’s recent five‑game form includes two victories and two draws, underscoring their advantage.
Essendon Royals W to win 91.1%
Match result
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Essendon Royals are clear away favorites
Our model rates an away win at 91.11% while the market odds imply 96.15%, giving a -5.04% value edge. Essendon Royals have won 65% of all matches and 60% of their away games, scoring 2.5 goals per away match. Melbourne City II have only two wins all season (20% at home) and average just 1.2 goals at home while conceding 3.7. The disparity reinforces the value in backing the Royals to win.
Over 2.5 goals 57.5%
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Core markets
Alamein W to win @ 4.50 model 28.8% vs 22.2% implied +6.6%
Home win offers +6.6% value edge
Our model shows a +6.59% value edge for a home victory. Alamein win 80% of their home games this season and have taken 2 of the last 5 head‑to‑head meetings. Their recent home form is solid with 2 wins, 2 draws and only 1 loss in the last five matches, reinforcing the upside.
Over 2.5 goals 80.1%
Match result
Core markets
Adelaide Comets Res. to win @ 12.00 model 22.6% vs 8.3% implied +14.3%
Comets win +16% value edge
Our model shows a +15.89% value edge for an away win – the model estimates a 24.22% chance while the odds imply only 8.33%. The Comets have been in good form, winning four of their last five matches and are currently on a two‑game unbeaten run, reinforcing the upside of this bet.
Avondale Heights to win 68%
Match result
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 model 73.4% vs 71.4% implied +2%
Home side's dominance vs market overvaluation
Our model flags a -10.08% value edge on a home win. Avondale boasts a 70% win rate at home and scores over 2.5 goals in 80% of those matches. They are on a two‑game winning streak and have netted an average of four goals per home game. The market’s implied probability (78%) far exceeds the model’s 68%, suggesting the odds are too short despite the home team’s strong form.
Over 2.5 goals 63%
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Preston Lions to win @ 2.55 model 42.5% vs 39.2% implied +3.3%
South Melbourne odds overprice home win
Our model flags a -9.44% value edge for a South Melbourne win, meaning the offered 2.20 odds overprice the home side. South Melbourne have won just 30% of their home games this season and managed only 3 wins in their last 5 fixtures, yet they have the edge in the recent rivalry with 3 victories in the last 5 head‑to‑heads.
Over 2.5 goals 63.7%
Match result
Core markets
Melbourne City II to win @ 2.15 model 54.1% vs 46.5% implied +7.6%
Melbourne City II strong away win edge
Our model shows a +9.02% value edge for an away win. City II win 60% of their away games this season and have triumphed in 3 of the last 5 head‑to‑head meetings, while the home side have only 2 wins in their last 5. The combination of strong away form and recent H2H success supports the value.
Broadmeadow Magic to win 60.7%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.40 model 30.1% vs 29.4% implied +0.7%
Goal fest likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model flags a -9.51% value edge for the Over 2.5‑goals market. Cooks Hill United have gone over 2.5 goals in 89% of their home matches, while Broadmeadow Magic do it in 56% of their away games. Both sides also average more than two goals per game (2.44 at home and 2.56 away), making a high‑scoring encounter very probable.
Over 2.5 goals 68.9%
Match result
Core markets
Devonport City to win @ 3.30 model 51.5% vs 30.3% implied +21.2%
Home win offers +21% value
Our model shows a +21.16% edge for a home win. Devonport City have won 86% of their home games this season and are unbeaten in their last two matches, while the implied probability from the 3.30 odds is only 30.3%. The model rating of 51.46% versus that implied chance creates the value.
Over 2.5 goals 76.6%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.33 model 76.6% vs 75.2% implied +1.4%
Home win overvalued – avoid the 3.3 odds
Our model shows a -5.04% value disadvantage for a Home Win at 3.3 odds. Launceston City have won only 57% of their home games this season and are coming off a loss, while Kingborough Lions win 63% of their away matches and 73% overall. These indicators together suggest the home side is less likely to win despite the market pricing.
Both teams to score 63.1%
Match result
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.66 model 62.4% vs 60.2% implied +2.2%
Home win odds overpriced – -10.3% edge
Our model flags a -10.33% value edge on the home win. The Sharks have won 3 of their last 5 games but are on a one‑match losing streak and only a 50% home win rate this season. Sydney Olympic have managed just a 25% win rate away and have lost their last two away fixtures, suggesting the market is over‑valuing a home victory.
Queensland Lions to win 78.6%
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Queensland Lions to win @ 1.29 model 78.6% vs 77.5% implied +1.1%
Goal fest likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model shows a +7.45% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model rating 73.2% vs odds 1.24, implied 80.65%). Both sides are prolific: Gold Coast United’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 75% of home games, while Queensland Lions hit over 2.5 in 100% of away games. In the last five meetings each team exceeded 2 goals three times, underscoring a high‑scoring outlook.
Over 2.5 goals 75%
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BTTS: No @ 3.25 model 31.4% vs 30.8% implied +0.6%
Draw likely, odds overvalued
The model shows a -5.81% value gap on the draw, meaning the market is pricing it too high. Both sides have struggled to win recently – the home side managed just one draw in its last five, while the visitors recorded three draws in theirs. Their season draw rates are also notable (about 25% at home and 22% away). With neither team in strong winning form, a stalemate is a realistic outcome.
Over 2.5 goals 76.7%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.33 model 76.7% vs 75.2% implied +1.5%
Home win undervalued despite 78% home success
Our model rates a home win at only 31.61% versus the market implied 43.48%, creating a -11.87% value edge. Yet Moreton City Excelsior have won 78% of their home games this season, showing strong home form that the market seems to over‑price.
Over 2.5 goals 74.5%
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Core markets
Over 2.5 Goals overpriced
Our model flags a –5.12% value edge for an Over 2.5‑goals bet (model rating 74.88% vs implied 80%). Both sides regularly exceed 2.5 goals – the home side does so in 78% of its home games and the visitors in 75% of theirs – suggesting the outcome is likely but the current odds of 1.25 do not reflect true value.
Over 2.5 goals 77.4%
Match result
Core markets
Magic United to win @ 6.50 model 23.6% vs 15.4% implied +8.2%
Magic United away win +11% value
Our model shows a +11.01% value edge for an away victory, with current odds of 8 (implied 12.5%). Magic United have won 2 of their last 5 away matches and sit on a one‑game unbeaten streak, indicating they can capitalize despite a low season away win rate of 22%.
Over 2.5 goals 69.7%
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Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50 model 69.7% vs 66.7% implied +3%
Home win +6% value edge
Our model rates a West Adelaide win at 43.22% while the market implies only 37.04%, creating a +6.18% value edge. The Saints have averaged 2.5 goals per game at home and 88% of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals. They also win roughly a quarter of their home fixtures and are currently on a one‑game unbeaten run, supporting a higher chance of victory than the odds reflect.
Over 2.5 goals 75.7%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.44 model 75.7% vs 69.4% implied +6.3%
Draw market overvalued – odds too generous
Our model shows a -6.83% value edge on the draw, meaning the offered odds are not justified. The home side has managed only one draw in its last five games and the visitors none, while season‑long draw rates sit at 29% for the home team and 24% for the away side. The low recent and overall draw frequencies support avoiding this market.
Over 2.5 goals 76.5%
Match result
Core markets
St. George Saints U20 to win @ 3.60 model 36.8% vs 27.8% implied +9%
Home win offers +9% value edge
Our model shows a +9.01% value edge for a Saints home win (model rating 36.79% vs implied 27.78%). The Saints have only a 10% home win rate and average 0.50 points per home game, while Rockdale win just 25% of away games and concede 2.08 goals on average away. This disparity gives the model confidence in a modest upset, making the home win a value bet.
Over 2.5 goals 79.2%
Match result
Core markets
NWS Spirit U20 to win @ 2.00 model 53.4% vs 50% implied +3.4%
Under 2.5 Goals – Poor Value
Our model shows a –7.02% edge for the Under 2.5 Goals market, meaning the odds (3.6) overestimate the chance. This aligns with season data: the home side’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 83% of home games and the visitors do so in 91% of away games. Both teams therefore rarely produce low‑scoring affairs, confirming the lack of value in betting under 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Match result
Core markets
Brisbane Olympic W to win @ 1.95 model 53.1% vs 51.3% implied +1.8%
Draw odds overpriced by 7%
Our model rates a draw at 22.14% while the market implies 29.41%, giving a –7.27% edge. Brisbane Olympic’s overall draw rate sits at 27% (33% at home) and Gold Coast United draws 32% of away games. In the last five matches each side managed only two draws, indicating draws are rarer than the odds suggest.
Mounties Wanderers to win 71.9%
Match result
Core markets
Draw @ 9.50 model 14.4% vs 10.5% implied +3.9%
Value Bet: Home Win at +6% Edge
Our model shows a +6% value edge for a Gladesville Ryde Magic victory (model rating 13.69% vs implied 7.69%). The Magic have won 36% of their home games this season and have recorded over 2.5 goals in 64% of those matches. Yet they have only 2 wins in their last five, suggesting the odds may be generous for a home win.
Both teams to score 58.4%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 Goals looks overpriced
Our model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 58.2% while the market implies 65.4%, giving a –7.17% value edge. Both clubs hover around the mid‑50s to mid‑60s for games exceeding 2.5 goals (home 65% overall, 56% at home; away 56% overall, 50% away), so the market’s higher expectation is not fully backed by season‑long scoring trends.
Both teams to score 64%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 model 37.2% vs 36.4% implied +0.8%
Away win undervalued – bet Kingsway
Our model rates an away win at 41.46% while the market implies 50% (odds 2.0), creating a -8.54% value edge. Olympic Kingsway have won two‑thirds of their away games (67% win rate) and average 2.22 points per away match, scoring 2.33 goals away. The combination of strong away form and the pricing gap makes the away win a compelling value bet.
Over 2.5 goals 69.6%
Match result
Core markets
Brisbane Strikers to win @ 2.45 model 56.7% vs 40.8% implied +15.9%
Home win offers +14% value edge
Our model shows a +13.93% edge for a home win (model rating 56.67% vs implied 42.74%). Brisbane have won each of their last five games, sit on an 88% home win rate and have not lost at home this season. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings they have three victories and no draws. The combination points to strong value on a home win.
Over 2.5 goals 72.5%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.44 model 72.5% vs 69.4% implied +3.1%
Draw bet overvalued – avoid it
Our model shows a -6.38% value edge for a draw versus the offered odds. The home side has not recorded any draws this season (0% of matches) and none in its last five games, while the visitors have drawn only 18% of their games overall and just one draw in their last five. With such low draw frequencies, the market appears overpriced.
Over 2.5 goals 84.1%
Match result
Core markets
Port Darwin to win @ 8.00 model 13.8% vs 12.5% implied +1.3%
Uni Azzurri dominate – Home win value
Our model shows a -10.49% value edge on a Uni Azzurri home win. The Azzurri have won all five of their last matches, with an 86% home win rate this season and average 3.86 goals per home game. In the five recent head‑to‑heads they have already taken two wins, underscoring their dominance.
Over 2.5 goals 83.7%
Match result
Core markets
Mt Gravatt Hawks to win @ 1.83 model 62.2% vs 54.6% implied +7.6%
Home side holds +7.5% edge to win
Our model rates a home win at 62.17% versus the market implied 54.64%, creating a +7.53% value edge. The Hawks have won 40% of their home games and average 1.90 goals at Dittmer Park, with 70% of those matches going over 2.5 goals and 70% featuring both sides scoring. In their last five outings they secured two victories and saw both teams score in every game, underscoring their attacking threat. Together these factors make a home win a value bet.
Jaro II to win 78.3%
Match result
Core markets
Jaro II to win @ 1.75 model 78.3% vs 57.1% implied +21.2%
Over 2.5 goals heavily overpriced
Our model shows a -12.82% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (rating 82.42% vs implied 95.24%). The home side exceeds 2.5 goals in 80% of its home matches and the visitors do so in 50% of away games, while the only recent head‑to‑head produced 4 goals. The market odds of 1.05 therefore overprice this outcome.
Over 2.5 goals 73.8%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 model 73.8% vs 71.4% implied +2.4%
Kiffen's Home Dominance vs Overpriced Odds
Our model rates a home win at 54.80% versus an implied 96.15% from the market, creating a -41.35% value edge. Kiffen wins 80% of its home games, is on a five‑match winning streak and has won three of the last five head‑to‑head meetings, underscoring their strength at home despite the odds being too short.
Over 2.5 goals 72.9%
Match result
Core markets
MYPA to win @ 3.75 model 29.2% vs 26.7% implied +2.5%
Home win undervalued by 10%
Our model flags a -10.04% value edge for a home win at odds of 1.69. HPS have won 3 of their last 5 matches (9 points) and sit on a one‑game winning streak, yet they have only secured 33% of possible points at home this season. The blend of recent form and modest home win rate suggests the market is mis‑priced.
Over 2.5 goals 72.1%
Match result
Core markets
PuiU Helsinki to win @ 2.90 model 42.1% vs 34.5% implied +7.6%
Home win massively overpriced
Our model flags a -54.09% value edge for a Home win (model rating 42.06% vs implied 96.15%). The home side has only a 33% win rate at home this season and managed just one win in their last five home matches, indicating a low probability of victory despite the ultra‑short 1.04 odds.
Over 2.5 goals 74.5%
Match result
Core markets
EBK to win @ 2.55 model 46.8% vs 39.2% implied +7.6%
Home win offers +7.5% edge
Our model shows a +7.54% value edge for a home victory (model rating 46.76% versus implied probability 39.22%). EBK averages 1.50 goals per home game and 67% of its home matches go over 2.5 goals, indicating strong attacking potential despite a modest recent run.
Under 2.5 goals 60.6%
Match result
Core markets
Pohang Steelers to win @ 2.37 model 44.6% vs 42.2% implied +2.4%
Steeler's Away Edge +5.5% for Win
Our model flags a +5.45% value edge for an away victory. Pohang have won 56% of all their games and an impressive 56% when playing away, scoring 1.56 goals per away match. In the last five away outings they secured four wins, netting nine goals while conceding just four. The combination of strong away form and the model’s positive value makes the away win a compelling bet.
Under 2.5 goals 56.3%
Match result
Core markets
Gimcheon Sangmu to win @ 4.33 model 27.9% vs 23.1% implied +4.8%
Home win undervalued by market
Our model shows a -11.3% value edge for a Home Win at 1.8 odds. Gangwon have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and only 1 loss in their last five matches and are on a four‑game unbeaten streak. They average 1.5 goals per home game (12 goals in 8 home fixtures) and concede just 0.75 per game at home, suggesting the market may be over‑rating the home side.
Both teams to score 56.3%
Match result
Core markets
Daegu away win offers ~6% value edge
Our model indicates a -5.91% value edge for Daegu to win away. Daegu have won 43% of their away matches this season and secured three victories in their last five outings, currently on a four‑game unbeaten streak. The only recent head‑to‑head ended 3‑3, showing Daegu can score on the road.
Both teams to score 56.6%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 model 47.1% vs 46.5% implied +0.6%
Goal fest likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model rates the over‑2.5 goal market at 49.17% versus an implied 59.88%, giving a -10.71% value edge. Suwon’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 71% of home games and 81% overall, while Seoul E. do so in 63% of away games and 75% overall. Both sides have hit the over‑2.5 line in 4 of their last 5 meetings, reinforcing a strong likelihood of a high‑scoring game.
Under 2.5 goals 55.3%
Match result
Core markets
Seongnam to win @ 2.90 model 34.7% vs 34.5% implied +0.2%
Busan I'Park primed for away win
Our model flags a -6.21% value edge for an away victory. Busan have won 5 of their 8 away games (63% win rate) and average 2.25 goals when playing away. Seongnam, by contrast, have managed just 1 win in 8 home matches (13% home win rate) and score only 0.75 goals per home game. The disparity backs the value in backing Busan to win.
Both teams to score 63.5%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 2.75 model 36.5% vs 36.4% implied +0.1%
Goal fest on the cards
Our model rates the Over 2.5 goals market at 62.8% with a modest –3.85% value edge versus the 1.5 odds. Both sides exceed the 2.5‑goal mark in the majority of their games – the home side does so in 67% of its home matches and the visitors in 72% overall. The recent head‑to‑head meetings have been high‑scoring, averaging 3.33 goals, with two of the three contests already going over 2.5. All signs point to another goal‑rich encounter.
Shanghai Shenhua to win 62.6%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.50 model 45.6% vs 40% implied +5.6%
Under 2.5 Goals – +7.2% Value Edge
Our model assigns a +7.18% value edge to the Under 2.5‑goals market. Tianjin only exceeds 2.5 goals in 38% of their away matches, showing a tendency for lower‑scoring games when they play away. Coupled with the positive model edge, betting Under 2.5 looks attractive.
Both teams to score 57.1%
Match result
Core markets
Draw bet hides a +5% edge
Our model rates a draw at 26.22% while the market implies 31.75%, giving a -5.53% value edge. The two sides have produced two draws in their last five meetings (40% of H2H), and Oddevold recorded two draws in its last five league games versus none for Varberg. These indicators suggest a draw is undervalued.
Both teams to score 58.2%
Match result
Core markets
Landskrona to win @ 3.20 model 35.9% vs 31.3% implied +4.6%
Östersunds win undervalued by odds
Our model flags a -11.09% value edge for an Östersunds win (odds 2.0 imply a 50% chance). Östersunds have won exactly half of their home games this season (50% home win rate) and only one win in the last five, yet they dominate the recent rivalry, securing four of the last five head‑to‑head meetings. The combination of modest home form and strong H2H suggests the market is overpriced.
Under 2.5 goals 52.9%
Match result
Core markets
Guangzhou E-Power FC to win @ 2.05 model 50.1% vs 48.8% implied +1.3%
Home win undervalued by 9%
Our model rates a home win at 23.0% while the odds imply 31.9%, creating an -8.8% value edge. Nanjing City wins 57% of its home games and averages 1.86 points per home match, showing strong home form despite a modest recent 2‑win streak. The combination suggests the market is pricing the home side too low.
Both teams to score 60.3%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05 model 57.1% vs 48.8% implied +8.3%
Goal‑fest likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model flags an +8.03% value edge for Over 2.5 goals. HamKam’s matches exceed 2.5 goals in 67% of home games, while Tromsø does so in 40% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 2.6 goals and produced over 2.5 goals in two games, supporting a high‑scoring outlook.
Both teams to score 53.9%
Match result
Core markets
Start to win @ 3.10 model 46.2% vs 32.3% implied +13.9%
Start win offers +10% value
Our model shows a +10.43% edge for a Start victory at odds 2.8 (46.14% model chance vs 35.71% market implied). Start have won three of the last five head‑to‑head clashes against Rosenborg and record a 20% home win rate this season, reinforcing the upside despite recent form.
Lillestrøm to win 55.7%
Match result
Core markets
KFUM to win @ 4.50 model 23.4% vs 22.2% implied +1.2%
Draw offers +5.6% value edge
Our model rates a draw at 21.1% while the odds imply 26.7%, giving a -5.58% value edge. Both sides have barely drawn recently – Lillestrøm has zero draws in its last five, KFUM only one. Moreover, the last five head‑to‑head meetings produced no draws. The scarcity of draws makes the market overpriced.
Both teams to score 62.8%
Match result
Core markets
Kristiansund to win @ 3.20 model 39% vs 31.3% implied +7.7%
Sarpsborg 08 primed for away win
Our model flags a -7.74% value edge for an away victory. Sarpsborg have won four of their last five matches, picking up 12 points and sitting on a one‑game winning streak. In the head‑to‑head record they have three wins to Kristiansund’s single triumph, underscoring their recent dominance.
Viking to win 69.9%
Match result
Core markets
Sandefjord to win @ 9.00 model 12.8% vs 11.1% implied +1.7%
Home win offers strong value
Our model shows a –7.5% edge on the home win odds (model rating 70.02% vs implied 77.52%). Viking have won every home match this season (5/5, 100% home win rate) and sit on a three‑game winning streak, unbeaten in four. Their recent form includes three wins in the last five, underscoring the high probability of another victory.
Both teams to score 65%
Match result
Core markets
Molde to win @ 2.10 model 49.3% vs 47.6% implied +1.7%
Both Teams Likely to Score – Yes
Our model flags the ‘Both Teams to Score – No’ market as overpriced with a -5.13% value edge (model rating 34.87% vs implied 40%). Both sides have very high BTTS rates – Molde scores in both teams in 58% of matches overall (50% at home) and Brann in 85% overall (86% away). The combination makes a ‘Yes’ selection the sensible play.
Both teams to score 58.1%
Match result
Core markets
BTTS: No @ 2.50 model 41.9% vs 40% implied +1.9%
KuPS strong away form backs value away win
Our model shows a -6.70% value edge for an away win (odds 2.05, model rating 42.08% vs implied 48.78%). KuPS have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are on a 5‑game unbeaten streak. They win 43% of away games and 71% of away fixtures feature both teams scoring, underscoring the undervalued away win market.
Both teams to score 54.3%
Match result
Core markets
Oulu to win @ 2.10 model 51.9% vs 47.6% implied +4.3%
Home win value +6% despite tough H2H
Our model shows a +5.99% edge for a home win. Oulu have won 83% of their home games this season and keep a clean sheet in 50% of those matches while conceding only 0.50 goals per game. They are unbeaten in their last two fixtures. Although Oulu have only 2 wins in the last five head‑to‑heads, the season‑long home strength makes the market attractive.
Both teams to score 58.3%
Match result
Core markets
PK-35 to win @ 4.00 model 38.9% vs 25% implied +13.9%
PK-35 win offers +17% value
Our model assigns a +17.25% edge to an away victory, rating the outcome at 38.85% versus the market’s implied 21.6%. PK‑35 have triumphed in 71% of their away fixtures this season and are on a five‑match unbeaten run, with four wins in their last five games. They also lead the recent head‑to‑head, winning three of the last five meetings. The convergence of model edge, strong away form and head‑to‑head success makes the away win a compelling bet.
Both teams to score 56.9%
Match result
Core markets
AIK to win @ 2.70 model 43.6% vs 37% implied +6.6%
AIK Home Win +5.4% Edge
Our model shows a +5.38% value edge for an AIK home victory. AIK have won 4 of their last 5 matches and boast a 75% both‑teams‑to‑score rate this season. Moreover, 60% of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals, underscoring their attacking potency at home.
Over 2.5 goals 81.7%
Match result
Core markets
Magni to win @ 4.20 model 36.5% vs 23.8% implied +12.7%
Home win offers +15% value
Our model shows a +15.42% edge for a Magni victory. Magni have won 40% of their home games this season and secured 2 wins in their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.20 goals at home, which supports the elevated probability beyond the market odds.
Both teams to score 54.9%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 49.2% vs 42.6% implied +6.6%
Home win offers +6.8% edge
Our model shows a +6.76% value edge for a Uruguay Montevideo victory. The home side has won just 25% of its league games at home and managed only one win in its last five home outings, while River Plate’s away win rate is also low at 25%. The contrast between the model’s confidence and the modest home record creates a worthwhile betting opportunity.
Peñarol to win 56.8%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 model 56.4% vs 52.6% implied +3.8%
Home win odds over‑priced
Our model flags a -10.8% value edge on the home win, meaning the market odds are too short. Peñarol have won just 40% of their home games this season and only 55% overall, with a modest recent run of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last five. Those figures line up with the model’s lower confidence in a home victory.
Over 2.5 goals 74.9%
Match result
Core markets
Maardu to win @ 3.40 model 36.1% vs 29.4% implied +6.7%
Home win odds massively overpriced
Our model rates a home win at only 43.9% while the market odds (1.05) imply a 95.2% chance – a -51% value gap. Flora II win 56% of their home games this season, yet Maardu have managed just an 11% win rate away. The model’s low rating despite Flora’s home strength signals the odds are far too short.
Tartu Welco to win 76.4%
Match result
Core markets
Draw @ 12.00 model 13.4% vs 8.3% implied +5.1%
Welco's dominant home form backs a win
Our model shows a -15.37% value edge for a home victory. Welco have won 4 of their last 5 at home and remain unbeaten in 5 matches. They average 3.56 goals per home game and have a perfect 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals at home, with a 67% home win percentage this season. These factors reinforce the strong case for a home win despite the odds.
Over 2.5 goals 77.2%
Match result
Core markets
Nõmme United II to win @ 3.00 model 36.2% vs 33.3% implied +2.9%
Home win looks risky – huge negative edge
Our model rates a home win at just 42.6% while the market implies 90.1%, a -47.5% value gap. Kalev have won only 44% of their home games this season and managed just 2 wins in their last five at home. In the two recent head‑to‑head meetings they have not won once (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The combination suggests the home win is over‑priced.
Riga to win 86.3%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals massively mispriced
Our model rates the chance of fewer than 2.5 goals at just 26.06%, while the odds imply an 80% probability – a -53.94% value gap. Riga averages almost 3 goals per game (2.95) and scores 2.91 at home; Tukums manages only 1.68 overall and 1.36 away. The last five meetings produced over 2.5 goals in three games and averaged 3 goals, making an over‑2.5 outcome far more likely.
Under 2.5 goals 65.1%
Match result
Core markets
Luverdense to win @ 3.10 model 33% vs 32.3% implied +0.7%
Home win edge despite away odds
Our model shows a -9.05% value edge against the away win, meaning the market overprices ABC. Luverdense are unbeaten in their last five games (3 wins, 2 draws) and have a 43% home win rate this season, while ABC have slipped in one of their last five and hold a 71% overall away win rate. These factors favour a home victory.
Charleston Battery to win 60.5%
Match result
Core markets
Charleston Battery to win @ 1.83 model 60.5% vs 54.6% implied +5.9%
Home side rides 86% home win rate
Our model shows a +5.93% edge for a home win (model rating 60.57% vs implied 54.64%). Charleston have won 6 of 7 home games – an 86% home win rate – and are on a three‑match winning streak. They also lead the recent head‑to‑head with 2 wins in the last 4 meetings, reinforcing the value.
San Antonio to win 54.1%
Match result
Core markets
Lights unlikely to upset at home
Our model shows a -7.05% value edge for an away win, meaning the odds are not favorable. Las Vegas has won only 14% of its away games this season and managed just 2 wins in its last 5 matches. In the head‑to‑head record they have only one away victory out of five. All signs point to San Antonio prevailing.
Under 2.5 goals 53.7%
Match result
Core markets
Alianza Atlético to win @ 4.75 model 25.5% vs 21.1% implied +4.4%
Home side overvalued despite strong home record
Our model shows a -10.75% value edge for a home victory. Cusco FC wins 63% of its home games this season and averages 1.38 goals at home, yet its recent five‑game run yields only one win and a current losing streak. The market odds (1.72) imply a 58% chance, higher than our 47% rating, indicating the home win is overpriced.
Over 2.5 goals 68.4%
Match result
Core markets
Home win appears overpriced
Our model assigns a 52.34% chance to a home victory, while the market odds imply a 60.24% probability – a -7.9% value gap. The home side have managed just one win in their last five matches, scoring five goals and conceding fourteen, underscoring their limited recent potency.
Seoul to win 58.9%
Match result
Core markets
Bucheon win odds over‑priced
Our model rates Bucheon’s chance to win at about 16%, while the market odds imply a 21% probability – a –5.16% value gap. Bucheon have won only one of their last five home games, drawn three and lost one, and have never led at half‑time at home this season. Their home scoring average is just 0.75 goals per game. Together these factors suggest the home win price is too generous.
Under 2.5 goals 56.3%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 model 56.3% vs 54.6% implied +1.7%
Value on Hwaseong away win
Our model rates an away win at 38.8% but the market implies 44.4%, giving a -5.66% edge. Hwaseong have won half of their away games this season and are unbeaten in their last three, while Yong‑in have only one home victory and a home win rate of 11%. The contrast suggests the away side is undervalued.
Under 2.5 goals 53.7%
Match result
Core markets
Home side holds value edge
Our model rates a home win at 53.1% while the market odds imply 58.1%, creating a -5.0% value edge. Gyeongnam have won 44% of their nine home games this season and in the last five at home they recorded two wins, two draws and only one loss. Their matches go over 2.5 goals 78% of the time at home and 78% feature both teams scoring, underscoring the home win likelihood.
United Nordic to win 57.7%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 model 63.2% vs 58.8% implied +4.4%
Draw odds overpriced – avoid
Our model rates a draw at only 21.6% while the market implies 28.6%, a -6.97% value gap. Both sides have modest scoring – United Nordic average 2.14 goals at home and Örebro just 1.00 away – and recent form shows only one win each in the last five, supporting a low draw probability.
Both teams to score 59.8%
Match result
Core markets
Elfsborg to win @ 3.60 model 31.7% vs 27.8% implied +3.9%
Sirius offers strong value on the win
Our model rates an away win at 43.34% versus the market implied 51.28%, creating a -7.94% value edge. Sirius have won 83% of their games this season and are unbeaten in their last five, scoring 2.75 goals per match. They also secured a 2‑1 away win in the most recent head‑to‑head, though historically Elfsborg lead the series 4‑1.
Hammarby to win 72%
Match result
Core markets
Degerfors to win @ 11.00 model 10.8% vs 9.1% implied +1.7%
Home win offers solid value
Our model flags a –6.70% edge on the home win. Hammarby win 71% of their home games and average 2.29 points per home match. In the last five fixtures they have three victories. Head‑to‑head they lead 3‑0‑2, with no away win in five meetings. The combination of strong home form and historical dominance supports the value.
Inter Turku to win 58.7%
Match result
Core markets
Both teams to score @ 1.80 model 57% vs 55.6% implied +1.4%
Avoid Overpriced Away Win
Our model rates an Inter Turku win at 58.6% versus the market implied 66.7%, creating a -8.0% value gap. Despite Inter Turku’s solid 57% away win rate and Jaro’s weak 29% home win rate (13% overall), the odds overvalue the away side, making the bet unattractive.
Alianza Lima to win 63.3%
Match result
Core markets
Both teams to score @ 2.00 model 51.8% vs 50% implied +1.8%
Home side dominates at home – value edge
Our model flags a -7.09% value edge for a home win (63.33% model rating versus a 70.42% implied probability from the 1.42 odds). Alianza Lima wins 88% of its home matches and has not been beaten at home (0% loss). They are also on a three‑game unbeaten run, reinforcing the high likelihood of a home victory.
Djurgården to win 57%
Match result
Core markets
Örgryte to win @ 6.25 model 20.6% vs 16% implied +4.6%
Djurgården to win – strong value
Our model shows a -13.46% value edge for Djurgården to win. They have won 75% of their away games this season and captured 3 victories in their last 5 outings, while Örgryte have only 17% home wins. In the recent head‑to‑head record Djurgården have not won any of the last five meetings, but the overall away form and current odds (1.42) make the bet attractive.
Tuggeranong United U23 to win 86.7%
Match result
Core markets
Home win odds over‑priced
Our model flags the home win odds as about -5.34% off the fair value. Tuggeranong have won 71% of their home games this season and are riding a two‑match winning streak, yet they were beaten 1‑2 in the only recent head‑to‑head meeting. The contrast suggests the market may be too short on the home side.
Over 2.5 goals 84.4%
Match result
Core markets
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.25 model 84.4% vs 80% implied +4.4%
Home win offers +13.5% value edge
Our model rates a home victory at 63.53% versus the market implied 50%, creating a +13.53% value edge. Newmarket have won 4 of their last 5 games and are unbeaten in 5, with a 71% overall win rate and an average of 3.33 goals per home match. Over 2.5 goals occur in 83% of their home games, underscoring their attacking strength.
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Every probability on this page is produced by our AI model. It combines team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every covered match.
For every fixture we publish the model's strongest call, win/draw/away probabilities, BTTS and Over 2.5 probabilities, the most likely scorelines, and a Value Edge where the model disagrees with the bookmaker's pricing.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated stamp above always reflects the most recent refresh.
Each prediction is generated by combining team form, expected goals (xG), historical scoring trends, head-to-head data and current bookmaker odds across the leagues we cover. The model is re-run every few hours, so the predictions on this page always reflect the latest market and team data.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability is the model's estimated chance that both sides will score at least one goal. A BTTS probability above 60% is treated as a strong signal; below 45% is weak. You can compare BTTS trends across leagues on our BTTS statistics page.
Value Edge is the gap between our AI's probability for an outcome and the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds. A positive Value Edge means the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than our model expects, which is what we flag as a value bet.
Our model is back-tested on tens of thousands of historical football matches and is regularly recalibrated. Accuracy varies by market — main result markets sit around industry benchmarks, while BTTS and Over 2.5 markets tend to score higher. No prediction is guaranteed; we recommend pairing them with our value bets and dropping odds tools before staking.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when bookmaker odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated timestamp at the top of the page reflects the most recent refresh.
Yes. The top insight for every fixture is free to view. OddAlerts Pro members also get access to additional insights per match, custom filters, and the full AI match report.
Betting Guides Value Bets Football Trends Corner Predictions Correct Score Form Guide xG Stats Custom Filters
OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
