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Liga Portugal Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga Portugal

Find value bets for Liga Portugal fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Famalicão vs Arouca

high

Fri 6th, 20:15

HT Result

Home

2.40 Fair: 2.21 WilliamHill

+8.6%

Model: 45.2%

FT Result

Home

1.82 Fair: 1.68 Betfair Exchange

+8.33%

Model: 59.7%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.29 Fair: 1.28 WilliamHill

+0.78%

Model: 78.2%

BTTS

Yes

1.85 Fair: 1.84 Pinnacle

+0.54%

Model: 54.4%

Moreirense vs Nacional

high

Sat 7th, 15:30

HT Result

Away

3.82 Fair: 3.60 Pinnacle

+6.11%

Model: 27.8%

FT Result

Away

3.16 Fair: 3.06 1xBet

+3.27%

Model: 32.7%

high

Sat 7th, 15:30

FT Result

Home

1.77 Fair: 1.67 1xBet

+5.99%

Model: 59.9%

HT Result

Home

2.30 Fair: 2.20 Bet365

+4.55%

Model: 45.4%

Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP

high

Sat 7th, 18:00

HT Result

Home

4.07 Fair: 2.99 Pinnacle

+36.12%

Model: 33.4%

FT Result

Home

3.54 Fair: 2.90 1xBet

+22.07%

Model: 34.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.76 Fair: 1.64 1xBet

+7.32%

Model: 60.9%

Estoril vs Casa Pia

high

Sat 7th, 20:30

FT Result

Away

4.70 Fair: 4.10 Betfair Exchange

+14.63%

Model: 24.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.12 Fair: 2.00 Pinnacle

+6%

Model: 50%

BTTS

No

2.22 Fair: 2.10 Pinnacle

+5.71%

Model: 47.6%

HT Result

Away

4.81 Fair: 4.62 Pinnacle

+4.11%

Model: 21.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.03 Fair: 3.90 1xBet

+3.33%

Model: 25.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.43 Fair: 2.40 Pinnacle

+1.25%

Model: 41.7%

Estrela Amadora vs Gil Vicente

high

Sun 8th, 15:30

FT Result

Home

5.00 Fair: 3.19 Betfair Exchange

+56.74%

Model: 31.4%

HT Result

Home

5.31 Fair: 4.19 Pinnacle

+26.73%

Model: 23.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.98 Fair: 1.70 1xBet

+16.47%

Model: 58.9%

Benfica vs Porto

high

Sun 8th, 18:00

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.70 Bet365

+14.71%

Model: 58.9%

FT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 3.22 Betfair Exchange

+11.8%

Model: 31.1%

HT Result

Away

4.21 Fair: 4.04 Pinnacle

+4.21%

Model: 24.8%

HT Result

Home

2.87 Fair: 2.77 Bet365

+3.61%

Model: 36.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.35 Fair: 1.32 1xBet

+2.27%

Model: 76%

Santa Clara vs Vitória Guimarães

high

Sun 8th, 20:30

BTTS

Yes

2.05 Fair: 1.74 Bet365

+17.82%

Model: 57.4%

FT Result

Away

2.92 Fair: 2.54 Betfair Exchange

+14.96%

Model: 39.4%

HT Result

Away

3.65 Fair: 3.44 Pinnacle

+6.1%

Model: 29.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.34 1xBet

+4.48%

Model: 74.4%

Tondela vs Rio Ave

high

Mon 9th, 20:15

BTTS

No

1.97 Fair: 1.86 Kambi Group

+5.91%

Model: 53.9%

FT Result

Home

2.18 Fair: 2.14 1xBet

+1.87%

Model: 46.7%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.