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Liga 3 Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga 3

Find value bets for Liga 3 fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

União Santarém vs Mafra

poor

Wed 4th, 20:00

HT Result

Home

4.35 Fair: 3.76 1xBet

+15.69%

Model: 26.6%

FT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 2.97 Pinnacle

+12.79%

Model: 33.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.57 Fair: 1.56 Pinnacle

+0.64%

Model: 64.1%

Sporting Covilhã vs 1º Dezembro

poor

Sat 7th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.69 Fair: 2.26 Pinnacle

+19.03%

Model: 44.2%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.38 WilliamHill

+1.45%

Model: 72.3%

HT Result

Home

3.37 Fair: 3.34 Pinnacle

+0.9%

Model: 30%

Amora vs Atlético CP

poor

Sat 7th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

2.39 Fair: 2.32 Pinnacle

+3.02%

Model: 43.1%

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Caldas

poor

Sat 7th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

1.92 Fair: 1.79 Pinnacle

+7.26%

Model: 56%

BTTS

No

1.75 Fair: 1.68 WilliamHill

+4.17%

Model: 59.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.22 Fair: 1.21 WilliamHill

+0.83%

Model: 82.9%

Varzim vs Académica

poor

Sat 7th, 18:00

FT Result

Home

2.79 Fair: 2.29 Pinnacle

+21.83%

Model: 43.7%

HT Result

Home

3.52 Fair: 3.14 1xBet

+12.1%

Model: 31.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.55 Fair: 1.39 WilliamHill

+11.51%

Model: 71.9%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.99 WilliamHill

+0.5%

Model: 50.2%

Amarante vs Trofense

poor

Sun 8th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.80 Fair: 2.71 Pinnacle

+3.32%

Model: 36.9%

Sanjoanense vs AD Marco 09

poor

Sun 8th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

2.60 Fair: 2.48 Pinnacle

+4.84%

Model: 40.3%

BTTS

Yes

1.91 Fair: 1.85 WilliamHill

+3.24%

Model: 54.1%

HT Result

Away

3.37 Fair: 3.36 Pinnacle

+0.3%

Model: 29.7%

Paredes vs Fafe

poor

Sun 8th, 17:30

HT Result

Home

3.18 Fair: 3.04 Pinnacle

+4.61%

Model: 32.9%

FT Result

Home

2.46 Fair: 2.42 Pinnacle

+1.65%

Model: 41.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.