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Champions League Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Champions League

Find value bets for Champions League fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Galatasaray vs Liverpool

medium

Tue 10th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

4.40 Fair: 2.23 Kambi Group

+97.31%

Model: 44.8%

HT Result

Home

4.33 Fair: 2.61 Bet365

+65.9%

Model: 38.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.10 Fair: 1.49 Kambi Group

+40.94%

Model: 67.3%

Newcastle United vs FC Barcelona

medium

Tue 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

2.40 Fair: 2.11 Betfair Exchange

+13.74%

Model: 47.4%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.29 Fair: 1.27 1xBet

+1.57%

Model: 78.6%

HT Result

Home

3.31 Fair: 3.26 Pinnacle

+1.53%

Model: 30.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.46 Fair: 1.45 1xBet

+0.69%

Model: 68.8%

Atalanta vs FC Bayern München

medium

Tue 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

5.00 Fair: 3.32 Kambi Group

+50.6%

Model: 30.1%

HT Result

Home

4.50 Fair: 3.43 Bet365

+31.2%

Model: 29.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.30 Fair: 1.93 Kambi Group

+19.17%

Model: 51.8%

BTTS

No

2.62 Fair: 2.48 Pinnacle

+5.65%

Model: 40.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.65 Fair: 2.57 1xBet

+3.11%

Model: 38.9%

FT Result

Draw

4.72 Fair: 4.61 1xBet

+2.39%

Model: 21.7%

Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur

medium

Tue 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

1.68 Fair: 1.56 1xBet

+7.69%

Model: 64%

HT Result

Home

2.16 Fair: 2.02 Kambi Group

+6.93%

Model: 49.5%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.26 Fair: 1.25 1xBet

+0.8%

Model: 80.1%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal

medium

Wed 11th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

6.20 Fair: 3.28 Betfair Exchange

+89.02%

Model: 30.5%

HT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 3.29 Bet365

+82.37%

Model: 30.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.30 Fair: 1.78 Bet365

+29.21%

Model: 56%

FT Result

Draw

4.40 Fair: 3.91 1xBet

+12.53%

Model: 25.6%

BTTS

No

1.93 Fair: 1.91 Betfair Exchange

+1.05%

Model: 52.3%

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

medium

Wed 11th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

3.23 Fair: 2.12 1xBet

+52.36%

Model: 47.2%

HT Result

Home

3.40 Fair: 2.74 Bet365

+24.09%

Model: 36.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.66 Fair: 1.44 Bet365

+15.28%

Model: 69.4%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.30 Fair: 1.29 Bet365

+0.78%

Model: 77.8%

Bodø / Glimt vs Sporting CP

medium

Wed 11th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.64 Fair: 2.54 Betfair Exchange

+3.94%

Model: 39.4%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.46 Bet365

+1.63%

Model: 40.6%

HT Result

Home

3.00 Fair: 2.96 Bet365

+1.35%

Model: 33.7%

Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea

medium

Wed 11th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.51 Fair: 4.13 1xBet

+9.2%

Model: 24.2%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+3.48%

Model: 43.5%

HT Result

Away

4.33 Fair: 4.24 Bet365

+2.12%

Model: 23.6%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.