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First League Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for First League

Find value bets for First League fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Cherno More vs Arda

high

Wed 4th, 14:00

HT Result

Away

4.57 Fair: 4.33 1xBet

+5.54%

Model: 23.1%

FT Result

Away

3.80 Fair: 3.74 Bet365

+1.6%

Model: 26.8%

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa

high

Wed 4th, 16:30

FT Result

Away

15.50 Fair: 10.18 Betfair Exchange

+52.26%

Model: 9.8%

HT Result

Away

10.63 Fair: 6.99 Pinnacle

+52.07%

Model: 14.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.66 Fair: 2.40 Pinnacle

+10.83%

Model: 41.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.74 Fair: 3.50 Pinnacle

+6.86%

Model: 28.6%

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Dobrudzha 1919

high

Thu 5th, 11:15

FT Result

Away

4.35 Fair: 2.97 Kambi Group

+46.46%

Model: 33.7%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 3.89 Bet365

+28.53%

Model: 25.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.95 Fair: 1.55 Pinnacle

+25.81%

Model: 64.7%

FT Result

Draw

3.50 Fair: 3.23 Pinnacle

+8.36%

Model: 31%

HT Result

Draw

2.18 Fair: 2.16 Kambi Group

+0.93%

Model: 46.4%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

high

Thu 5th, 13:45

HT Result

Home

4.50 Fair: 3.64 1xBet

+23.63%

Model: 27.5%

FT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 2.93 Pinnacle

+22.87%

Model: 34.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.66 Fair: 1.55 Bet365

+7.1%

Model: 64.5%

Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia

high

Thu 5th, 16:30

FT Result

Home

2.42 Fair: 2.32 Betfair Exchange

+4.31%

Model: 43.1%

HT Result

Away

4.01 Fair: 3.94 1xBet

+1.78%

Model: 25.4%

HT Result

Home

3.04 Fair: 3.02 1xBet

+0.66%

Model: 33.1%

Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna

high

Fri 6th, 16:00

FT Result

Away

5.20 Fair: 3.94 Kambi Group

+31.98%

Model: 25.4%

HT Result

Away

5.95 Fair: 4.61 1xBet

+29.07%

Model: 21.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.10 Fair: 1.87 Bet365

+12.3%

Model: 53.6%

FT Result

Draw

3.75 Fair: 3.54 Kambi Group

+5.93%

Model: 28.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.28 Fair: 2.23 Kambi Group

+2.24%

Model: 44.8%

Septemvri Sofia vs Cherno More

high

Sat 7th, 13:00

HT Result

Home

6.52 Fair: 4.93 1xBet

+32.25%

Model: 20.3%

FT Result

Home

5.78 Fair: 5.10 1xBet

+13.33%

Model: 19.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.10 Fair: 2.08 Bet365

+0.96%

Model: 48%

Botev Vratsa vs Arda

high

Sat 7th, 15:30

FT Result

Home

3.30 Fair: 2.99 Bet365

+10.37%

Model: 33.4%

HT Result

Home

4.25 Fair: 4.05 1xBet

+4.94%

Model: 24.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.57 Fair: 1.53 Bet365

+2.61%

Model: 65.4%

Dobrudzha 1919 vs Beroe

high

Sun 8th, 10:45

FT Result

Home

1.92 Fair: 1.69 Kambi Group

+13.61%

Model: 59.2%

BTTS

No

1.87 Fair: 1.81 Kambi Group

+3.31%

Model: 55.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.33 Bet365

+2.26%

Model: 75.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.21 Fair: 1.19 Kambi Group

+1.68%

Model: 84.1%

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

high

Sun 8th, 13:15

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 3.00 Bet365

+83.33%

Model: 33.4%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 3.90 Bet365

+53.85%

Model: 25.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.30 Fair: 1.65 Bet365

+39.39%

Model: 60.6%

FT Result

Draw

3.90 Fair: 3.67 Kambi Group

+6.27%

Model: 27.3%

BTTS

Yes

1.91 Fair: 1.87 WilliamHill

+2.14%

Model: 53.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.35 Fair: 2.33 Kambi Group

+0.86%

Model: 42.9%

CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

high

Sun 8th, 15:45

HT Result

Away

8.50 Fair: 5.56 Bet365

+52.88%

Model: 18%

FT Result

Away

8.80 Fair: 7.86 1xBet

+11.96%

Model: 12.7%

BTTS

Yes

2.20 Fair: 2.07 Bet365

+6.28%

Model: 48.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.60 Fair: 2.52 Kambi Group

+3.17%

Model: 39.8%

FT Result

Draw

5.00 Fair: 4.96 Kambi Group

+0.81%

Model: 20.2%

Montana vs Ludogorets

high

Mon 9th, 13:30

FT Result

Home

15.00 Fair: 5.34 Bet365

+180.9%

Model: 18.7%

HT Result

Home

12.00 Fair: 4.95 Bet365

+142.42%

Model: 20.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.60 Fair: 2.36 1xBet

+52.54%

Model: 42.4%

FT Result

Draw

5.75 Fair: 4.22 Bet365

+36.26%

Model: 23.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.75 Fair: 2.38 Bet365

+15.55%

Model: 42%

BTTS

Yes

2.37 Fair: 2.06 Bet365

+15.05%

Model: 48.7%

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

high

Mon 9th, 16:00

HT Result

Away

8.75 Fair: 6.20 1xBet

+41.13%

Model: 16.1%

FT Result

Away

9.60 Fair: 8.64 1xBet

+11.11%

Model: 11.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.20 Fair: 2.10 Bet365

+4.76%

Model: 47.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.25 Fair: 3.23 Bet365

+0.62%

Model: 30.9%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.