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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Atlético Mineiro vs Internacional

medium

Wed 11th, 22:00

FT Result

Home

1.98 Fair: 1.96 1xBet

+1.02%

Model: 51.1%

BTTS

No

1.90 Fair: 1.89 Bet365

+0.53%

Model: 52.8%

Athletico PR vs Botafogo

medium

Wed 11th, 22:00

FT Result

Home

2.13 Fair: 1.93 1xBet

+10.36%

Model: 51.7%

HT Result

Home

2.87 Fair: 2.67 Bet365

+7.49%

Model: 37.4%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.33 Bet365

+2.26%

Model: 75.1%

Bahia vs Vitória

medium

Wed 11th, 23:00

FT Result

Home

1.79 Fair: 1.46 1xBet

+22.6%

Model: 68.6%

HT Result

Home

2.25 Fair: 1.99 Bet365

+13.07%

Model: 50.2%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.30 Fair: 1.24 Bet365

+4.84%

Model: 80.5%

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro

medium

Thu 12th, 00:30

FT Result

Away

6.31 Fair: 4.12 Pinnacle

+53.16%

Model: 24.3%

HT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 4.45 Bet365

+23.6%

Model: 22.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.30 Fair: 2.03 Bet365

+13.3%

Model: 49.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.25 Fair: 4.00 Pinnacle

+6.25%

Model: 25%

Corinthians vs Coritiba

medium

Thu 12th, 00:30

FT Result

Away

6.86 Fair: 3.81 Pinnacle

+80.05%

Model: 26.3%

HT Result

Away

6.50 Fair: 4.27 Bet365

+52.22%

Model: 23.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.30 Fair: 1.83 Bet365

+25.68%

Model: 54.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.17 Fair: 3.54 Pinnacle

+17.8%

Model: 28.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.20 Fair: 2.09 Bet365

+5.26%

Model: 47.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.20 Fair: 2.12 Bet365

+3.77%

Model: 47.2%

Remo vs Fluminense

medium

Thu 12th, 22:00

FT Result

Home

3.68 Fair: 2.66 1xBet

+38.35%

Model: 37.7%

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras

medium

Thu 12th, 22:30

FT Result

Home

3.75 Fair: 3.28 Bet365

+14.33%

Model: 30.5%

HT Result

Home

4.00 Fair: 3.51 Bet365

+13.96%

Model: 28.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.80 Fair: 1.76 Bet365

+2.27%

Model: 56.7%

São Paulo vs Chapecoense

medium

Thu 12th, 23:00

HT Result

Away

6.50 Fair: 5.14 Bet365

+26.46%

Model: 19.4%

FT Result

Away

7.00 Fair: 5.68 Bet365

+23.24%

Model: 17.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.62 Fair: 2.31 Bet365

+13.42%

Model: 43.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.22 Fair: 3.88 1xBet

+8.76%

Model: 25.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.26 Bet365

+4.87%

Model: 44.2%

BTTS

No

1.80 Fair: 1.76 Bet365

+2.27%

Model: 57%

Grêmio vs Bragantino

medium

Fri 13th, 00:30

FT Result

Home

2.14 Fair: 1.83 1xBet

+16.94%

Model: 54.7%

HT Result

Home

2.75 Fair: 2.66 Bet365

+3.38%

Model: 37.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.28 Fair: 1.27 Bet365

+0.79%

Model: 78.8%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.32 Bet365

+0.76%

Model: 75.9%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.