Looking to find the best teams for home wins? When you first get started with filters, you might feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of rules and possibilities that are on offer. Fear not, because this article will show you how you can use just a few rules to create shortlists with a view to finding the best teams for a home win on your bets.
The video above will show you everything you need to know to create winning shortlists. I will also provide a written example so you can easily follow along or come back to this text at anytime in the future.
Stats Related to Home Wins
It might seem obvious for the home wins market, but picking the right football stats to include in your filter rules is key. The more you can include, the tighter your filter will become. Some bettors like to have looser filters that allow them to jump into the fixtures and do some personal research. I also take this approach, but that doesn’t mean your filter should return 100+ games each day.
PPG (Points Per Game): PPG is the number of points divided by the number of games played. This gives a great indication into overall performance of a team, with 3 being the highest possible value. When using filters on OddAlerts, you can filter for the teams’ PPG when playing at home, overall, or away. This means we can also limit the PPG of the away side in this case, making sure we only show away teams that have performed lower than average this season.
Win %: A similar stat to PPG, but one that cuts right to the juice. This will allow you to filter for the percentage of games a team has actually won, something we will want to make sure is high when we are looking for strong home teams. As with PPG, we can also set a lower limit to ensure our away teams have won, say, 20% or fewer of their fixtures this season.
Goals Scored: To win games, you must score goals. It’s that simple. So, we will need to include rules based around our home team being able to consistently find the back of the net. Thankfully, OddAlerts has many stats and rules based around goals. I would recommend that you add the “0.5+ Goals Scored” rule. This is the percentage of times that a team has scored in a fixture, and again this can be tailored to home, away, or overall form. I always suggest that users add these rules over AVGs. AVGs are great for a general glance, but the actuals and occurrences are what you need in order to bet with confidence and make a solid play.
Goals Conceded: As with scoring goals to win games, a team must concede to lose a fixture. It’s no good our home team playing against a side that has kept a clean sheet in 75% of games this season, so we will need to add basic rules around goals conceded. We want to make sure they have consistently conceded goals away from home, and this is possible with the “Conceded 0.5+ Goals” rule. You can set this as high as you like, or even set the rule around the last 5, 6, or 10 games only.
Using Trends Pages to Find Home Wins
The trends pages on OddAlerts act as a ready made shortlist of games, sorted by a single statistic. In the case of the home wins page, you will see the best home teams in terms of fixtures won. These pages focus on occurrences, so how many games have they actually won at home. Another way to think about this is “how many times has this bet won before?”. This question was the inspiration for building the trends pages. What’s more, the page will also show you away teams ranked by fixtures lost.
What’s great about the trends page is that it’s contextual. It knows that you’re looking at home wins and will allow you to quickly set alerts on the odds of those markets, and when clicking on a fixture it will bring up the stats related to that market, such as the ones I have mentioned above.
Did you enjoy this insights post? What would you like to see me write about next time? I’m open to suggestions, so get in touch on Twitter!
Written by Joe (Founder @ OddAlerts)