This guide will introduce you to football markets aimed towards a more cautious and long-term betting strategy. We will discuss markets such as: Goal Line, Asian Lines, Draw No Bet, and Double Chance Bet. If you are betting on football to make money, these markets are a sensible way to minimise your overall risk.
You’ll notice that some of these markets are basically the same (or very similar) to others, and that’s the beauty of it. You do not have to change your pattern of research, and can land at the same predicted outcome of a fixture whilst playing with these safer betting markets. I’ll be using Bet365 in the example images, however, these markets are widely available on the majority of bookmakers around the world.
Betting on the Goal Line is betting on the total number of goals you think will be scored during a period of play. Usually, this is 90 minutes, however some bookmakers also allow you to bet on the First-Half Goal Line.
The reason that many risk-averse gamblers bet on Goal Line is because you are given your money back as a refund if the number of goals is exactly what you said it would be more or less than. As an example, if you have placed a bet on “Goal Line: Over 2 Goals” and the fixture finishes with just a couple of goals, you will be refunded your stake. It’s important to remember that this is only the case with whole numbers.
Having the refund adds security to your position and is a major benefit of the Goal Line. How many times have you lost out on a bet because you were just waiting on another goal? With Goal Line, you would have been at ease, knowing your refund had been secured. With less risk comes lower odds, but I find Goal Line offers great opportunities earlier in the fixture.
The image below shows the Alternative Goal Line section on an upcoming Premier League fixture. I have marked the lines that will offer a full refund. If you were to place £10 on this bet, you would get £12.30 back should there be more than 2 goals, and a refund if there’s exactly 2 goals. At those odds, Bet365 is giving it a ~81.3% chance of happening.
Potential teams for goal line or total goals betting can be found on the Over 2.5+ Goals stat page, or you can create your own custom filter, combining hundreds of rules to find the fixtures that suit your needs. OddAlerts allows you to set alerts on this market, meaning you will never miss the value when it appears during the fixture.
Double Chance Bet
When placing a Double Chance bet, you get two opportunities to win. You can think of this market as a fallback. With Double Chance, you can back your team to win OR draw. As you might imagine, the odds are much shorter but this article is all about removing risk and focusing on long-term gains when betting on football. How many times have you been let down by a later equaliser? This market offers protection against that.
This market also allows you to bet on either team to win the game. This is essentially betting against the draw. Double Chance is often displayed on your bookmaker’s site or app like this:
- 1X = Home Win or Draw
- X2 = Away Win or Draw
- 12 = Home Win or Away Win
Potential teams for double chance betting might be strong home teams, strong away teams, or you can create your own custom filter, combining hundreds of rules to find the fixtures that suit your needs.
DNB (Draw No Bet)
If you’re someone who usually bets on the FT Result of a fixture, DNB (Draw No Bet) is a great way to minimise your risk.
DNB (Draw No Bet) offers a refund if the game ends in a draw. When you think about it, it does what it says on the tin. Between DNB and Double Chance, this will offer better odds as you are still betting on a single outcome. The team must win in order for you to win and the bookmakers to lose. What is the difference in odds between FT Result, DNB, and Double Chance? Well, let’s look the odds for West Ham away at Crystal Palace:
- Away Win: 2.2
- Away DNB: 1.57
- Away Win or Draw: 1.33
In recent years, Bet365 (and others) have added Bet Builders to their websites. When used correctly, these can be fantastic tools for creating low-risk bets. They allow you combine some of the markets we have discussed here, including double chance. A personal favourite combination of mine is to have the team I have been researching to win or draw and for there to be 2 or more goals in the fixture. I will aim for odds of ~1.90+ here, depending on the teams and the league. This covers your back in a few situations, especially the draw (1-1). Bet Builders can sometimes offer a lot of flexibility to create more risk-averse bets, but it’s important to keep things simple. Do not load too many selections into your bet builder as you fall into the trap of trying to predict the whole outcome of the game.
Using the same West Ham game from above as an example, I can see that 79% of all games involving these two teams has seen 2 or more goals this season. Let’s say you have your eye on West Ham after doing your research, the Bet Builder will allow you to combine two markets, say X2 + 1.5+ Goals to create a custom bet that offers odds of 1.72.
A good rule of thumb is to always check if there’s an Asian alternative to the bet you’re about to make. More often than not, there will be. If you have not bet on the Asian Lines before, do not be intimidated by the different layout or the number of options available. Asian Lines betting offers protection in the form of refunds. We touched on this earlier with the Goal Line, but you can also bet on Corners, 1st Half Corners, 1st Half Goals and Cards. Betting on the result within the Asian Lines section is called Asian Handicap.
What steps do you take to minimise the risk when betting on football? Let us know by getting involved on Twitter. I will gladly update this article with any feedback and suggestions from the community.
Written by Joe (Founder @ OddAlerts)