Data-Driven Match Insights & Betting Value Analysis
Wigan average just 0.8 goals across their last 10 home games and BTTS has landed in only 2 of those, pointing to tight matches at the DW. Leyton Orient, however, have seen Over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 overall and 8 of their last 10 away. The model makes Over 2.5 a 52.1% chance versus 1.98 odds (50.5% implied), giving a modest +3.2% value edge.
Home Win: 40.1%Accrington have scored just 4 goals in 10 games and failed to net in their last 3, while Crewe have 13 goals and 5 wins in that span. The model gives Crewe a 51.4% win chance vs 42.6% implied at 2.35, making Away Win a +20.9% value play.
Both sides struggle in attack: Walsall 0.6 home goals per game, Gillingham 0.8 away, with the model projecting just 1.7 total goals (1.1 + 0.6). Our probabilities make Walsall slight favourites (41.1% vs 31.1%), yet Gillingham are shorter at 2.99 (implied 33.4%), suggesting the home price at 2.29 (43.7% implied) offers no value on the 1X2.
Charlton have seen Over 2.5 in just 1 of their last 10, with 6/10 under 1.5 and only 8 goals conceded, while Bristol City have failed to score in 5 of 10 and lost to nil in 5 of those. Under 2.5 at 1.75 (implied 57.1%) vs model 55.4% shows the market already prices this defensive, cagey script tightly.
Norwich are 7W-0D-3L in their last 10, with 5 clean sheets and 5 wins by 2+ goals, while Portsmouth are 2W-1D-7L and have shipped 17 goals (9 in the last 3). The Home Win at 1.89 carries +5.3% value (model 55.7% vs implied 52.9%).
QPR’s home matches are wide open – Over 2.5 has landed in 9 of their last 10 at Loftus Road and they’ve hit 9 goals in their last 3 overall, despite conceding 19 in their last 10. The model makes a QPR win 40.6% vs 37.6% implied by 2.66, giving the Home Win around +8% value.
Sheffield United have scored in 10/10 and seen BTTS in 8/10 overall and 9/10 at home, while Swansea’s games are more one-sided (4 wins to nil, 4 losses to nil in last 10). The model makes BTTS 57.7% vs 55.6% implied at 1.80 and Over 2.5 goals 57.3% vs 51.5% at 1.94, both offering small positive value.
Oxford have scored just 0.6 goals per game in their last 10 at home and have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 overall, yet Hull have shipped 21 goals in their last 10 (2.1 per game). The model leans to Hull’s quality with Away Win at 2.88 priced for 34.7% but rated 39.5% (+13.8% value).
Birmingham have scored in just 6 of their last 10, while Blackburn average only 0.7 goals in their last 10 away and project to a combined 1.8 goals. Both sides have conceded around a goal a game. Under 2.5 at 1.72 (implied 58.1% vs model 52.4%) isn’t a value play, but the stats still strongly lean to a low‑scoring contest.
Leicester are 1W-4D-5L in their last 10 overall and have shipped 17 goals, while Preston have lost by 2+ in 4 of 10 but still rate better than the odds suggest. Our model gives Preston a 28.7% win chance vs 24.5% implied at 4.08, a +17.3% value on the away win.
Wrexham have hit 19 goals in their last 10 (7/10 Over 2.5, scored in all 10) while West Brom have allowed only 10 in 10, with just 3/10 Over 2.5 and 0.86 xGA per game. The model leans slightly to a lower total (Under 2.5 at 1.76 vs 54.2% u2.5), so the numbers back a cagey game despite Wrexham’s output.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability indicates the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal during the match, based on offensive and defensive statistics. Explore more BTTS statistics and trends across different leagues.
Value edge represents the percentage difference between our AI's calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied odds. A positive value suggests the bet may offer value. Find more opportunities on our value bets page.
Our AI model has been tested on thousands of historical football matches and achieves accuracy rates above industry standards. You can track our performance with our bet tracking tool. However, football is inherently unpredictable and no prediction is guaranteed.
We provide AI predictions for major European leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Championship. View all leagues on our fixtures page.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
