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Bundesliga Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Bundesliga

Find value bets for Bundesliga fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

good

Wed 4th, 19:30

FT Result

Home

3.55 Fair: 2.80 Betfair Exchange

+26.79%

Model: 35.7%

HT Result

Home

3.92 Fair: 3.40 Pinnacle

+15.29%

Model: 29.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.75 Fair: 1.65 Kambi Group

+6.06%

Model: 60.6%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.35 Betfair Exchange

+1.28%

Model: 42.6%

FC Bayern München vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

good

Fri 6th, 19:30

HT Result

Away

11.24 Fair: 6.27 Pinnacle

+79.27%

Model: 15.9%

FT Result

Draw

11.50 Fair: 6.99 Betfair Exchange

+64.52%

Model: 14.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

6.57 Fair: 4.81 Pinnacle

+36.59%

Model: 20.8%

HT Result

Draw

3.85 Fair: 3.19 Pinnacle

+20.69%

Model: 31.3%

FT Result

Away

18.50 Fair: 15.41 Betfair Exchange

+20.05%

Model: 6.5%

BTTS

No

2.08 Fair: 1.74 Kambi Group

+19.54%

Model: 57.4%

VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburger SV

good

Sat 7th, 14:30

FT Result

Away

2.97 Fair: 2.34 1xBet

+26.92%

Model: 42.7%

BTTS

No

2.45 Fair: 2.19 Pinnacle

+11.87%

Model: 45.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.63 Fair: 1.46 1xBet

+11.64%

Model: 68.4%

HT Result

Away

3.49 Fair: 3.27 Pinnacle

+6.73%

Model: 30.6%

Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim

good

Sat 7th, 14:30

BTTS

No

2.44 Fair: 2.06 Betfair Exchange

+18.45%

Model: 48.6%

FT Result

Home

5.28 Fair: 4.69 1xBet

+12.58%

Model: 21.3%

HT Result

Home

5.06 Fair: 4.52 Pinnacle

+11.95%

Model: 22.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.39 Fair: 2.25 1xBet

+6.22%

Model: 44.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.57 Fair: 4.35 1xBet

+5.06%

Model: 23%

SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

good

Sat 7th, 14:30

FT Result

Home

2.96 Fair: 2.30 1xBet

+28.7%

Model: 43.5%

HT Result

Home

3.49 Fair: 2.85 Pinnacle

+22.46%

Model: 35.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.58 Fair: 1.45 1xBet

+8.97%

Model: 68.9%

BTTS

No

2.31 Fair: 2.23 Pinnacle

+3.59%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.35 Fair: 1.34 1xBet

+0.75%

Model: 74.5%

RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg

good

Sat 7th, 14:30

FT Result

Away

7.20 Fair: 4.81 Betfair Exchange

+49.69%

Model: 20.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.95 Fair: 2.35 Pinnacle

+25.53%

Model: 42.6%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 5.02 Bet365

+19.52%

Model: 19.9%

FT Result

Draw

5.20 Fair: 4.58 Betfair Exchange

+13.54%

Model: 21.8%

FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart

good

Sat 7th, 14:30

BTTS

No

2.62 Fair: 2.24 Betfair Exchange

+16.96%

Model: 44.7%

FT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 2.88 Betfair Exchange

+16.32%

Model: 34.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.73 Fair: 1.68 1xBet

+2.98%

Model: 59.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.51 Fair: 2.45 Pinnacle

+2.45%

Model: 40.8%

FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund

good

Sat 7th, 17:30

FT Result

Home

4.60 Fair: 3.08 Betfair Exchange

+49.35%

Model: 32.5%

HT Result

Home

4.50 Fair: 3.22 Bet365

+39.75%

Model: 31%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.12 Fair: 1.78 1xBet

+19.1%

Model: 56.2%

St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt

good

Sun 8th, 14:30

FT Result

Home

2.74 Fair: 2.23 1xBet

+22.87%

Model: 44.8%

HT Result

Home

3.31 Fair: 3.13 Pinnacle

+5.75%

Model: 32%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.50 Fair: 1.42 1xBet

+5.63%

Model: 70.5%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.35 1xBet

+0.74%

Model: 74.2%

FC Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen

good

Sun 8th, 16:30

HT Result

Away

4.02 Fair: 3.44 Pinnacle

+16.86%

Model: 29.1%

FT Result

Away

3.38 Fair: 2.98 1xBet

+13.42%

Model: 33.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.68 Fair: 1.66 1xBet

+1.2%

Model: 60.1%

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli

good

Fri 13th, 19:30

FT Result

Away

4.31 Fair: 3.39 1xBet

+27.14%

Model: 29.5%

HT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 4.06 Bet365

+10.84%

Model: 24.6%

BTTS

Yes

1.90 Fair: 1.89 Bet365

+0.53%

Model: 52.8%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.