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FA Cup Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for FA Cup

Find value bets for FA Cup fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool

poor

Fri 6th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

7.40 Fair: 6.70 Betfair Exchange

+10.45%

Model: 14.9%

HT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 5.49 Bet365

+9.29%

Model: 18.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.65 Fair: 2.64 Pinnacle

+0.38%

Model: 37.9%

Mansfield Town vs Arsenal

poor

Sat 7th, 12:15

FT Result

Home

30.00 Fair: 4.66 Kambi Group

+543.78%

Model: 21.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

11.16 Fair: 2.31 Pinnacle

+383.12%

Model: 43.3%

HT Result

Home

19.00 Fair: 4.56 Bet365

+316.67%

Model: 22%

FT Result

Draw

16.02 Fair: 4.58 Pinnacle

+249.78%

Model: 21.8%

HT Result

Draw

4.45 Fair: 2.55 1xBet

+74.51%

Model: 39.2%

BTTS

Yes

2.66 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+37.82%

Model: 51.9%

Wrexham vs Chelsea

poor

Sat 7th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

7.00 Fair: 3.41 Kambi Group

+105.28%

Model: 29.3%

HT Result

Home

6.34 Fair: 3.86 Pinnacle

+64.25%

Model: 25.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.90 Fair: 1.92 1xBet

+51.04%

Model: 52.2%

FT Result

Draw

5.00 Fair: 4.38 Kambi Group

+14.16%

Model: 22.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.78 Fair: 2.52 Pinnacle

+10.32%

Model: 39.7%

BTTS

Yes

1.75 Fair: 1.69 Betfair Exchange

+3.55%

Model: 59.1%

Newcastle United vs Manchester City

poor

Sat 7th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

3.58 Fair: 2.92 1xBet

+22.6%

Model: 34.3%

HT Result

Home

4.00 Fair: 3.43 Bet365

+16.62%

Model: 29.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.90 Fair: 1.75 Bet365

+8.57%

Model: 57.1%

BTTS

No

2.60 Fair: 2.56 Betfair Exchange

+1.56%

Model: 39.1%

Fulham vs Southampton

poor

Sun 8th, 12:00

FT Result

Away

5.80 Fair: 2.48 Betfair Exchange

+133.87%

Model: 40.3%

HT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 3.31 Bet365

+66.16%

Model: 30.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.47 Fair: 1.55 1xBet

+59.35%

Model: 64.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.60 Fair: 4.16 Betfair Exchange

+10.58%

Model: 24%

HT Result

Draw

2.62 Fair: 2.47 Pinnacle

+6.07%

Model: 40.4%

BTTS

Yes

1.69 Fair: 1.66 Betfair Exchange

+1.81%

Model: 60.2%

Leeds United vs Norwich City

poor

Sun 8th, 16:30

FT Result

Away

7.50 Fair: 2.98 Bet365

+151.68%

Model: 33.6%

HT Result

Away

6.50 Fair: 3.90 Bet365

+66.67%

Model: 25.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.84 Fair: 1.71 1xBet

+66.08%

Model: 58.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.75 Fair: 4.03 Kambi Group

+17.87%

Model: 24.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.65 Fair: 2.33 Pinnacle

+13.73%

Model: 42.9%

BTTS

Yes

1.83 Fair: 1.82 Betfair Exchange

+0.55%

Model: 54.9%

West Ham United vs Brentford

poor

Mon 9th, 19:30

FT Result

Away

2.36 Fair: 2.05 1xBet

+15.12%

Model: 48.9%

HT Result

Away

2.91 Fair: 2.70 1xBet

+7.78%

Model: 37%

BTTS

No

2.40 Fair: 2.23 Kambi Group

+7.62%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.41 Fair: 1.38 Kambi Group

+2.17%

Model: 72.5%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.31 1xBet

+1.53%

Model: 76.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.