The headline numbers here are about as thin as it gets — every team in the top five has exactly one qualifying result. That's not a trend, that's a coin flip with a timestamp on it. Early August is always the graveyard of reliable sample sizes, and the League of Ireland and Colombian lower-league entries on this list should be treated with particular suspicion. Longford Town and Kerry playing high-scoring League of Ireland football is historically more likely than the opposite, which makes an 8% hit rate on Under 3.5 look like noise, not signal.
The honest read: this market is sitting at 13% page-wide, which is already a low-frequency bet, and the early-season caveat compounds that. Wait for mid-August when teams have four or five fixtures across consistent opposition before building any Under 3.5 case. Right now the table is showing you who got lucky once, not who plays tight football.