Pre-season numbers always look pretty, and a 98% page-wide hit rate sounds like a gift — but treat it as noise until proven otherwise. Squads are bloated with trialists, managers are experimenting with shape, and defensive organisation is the last thing to click in July. Goals come cheap for reasons that evaporate once competitive football resumes.
That said, Botafogo's sample is the one worth a second look here. Seven matches at 100% with odds still sitting at 1.30 suggests the market hasn't fully compressed — probably because books are slow to price pre-season Brazilian fixtures tightly. If you're playing anything today, that's the line with the most defensible logic behind it, not because the hit rate is perfect, but because the odds haven't been hammered flat the way a European side's would be.