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La Liga Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for La Liga

Find value bets for La Liga fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Oviedo

high

Wed 4th, 18:00

BTTS

No

1.86 Fair: 1.72 Betfair Exchange

+8.14%

Model: 58.1%

FT Result

Away

5.60 Fair: 5.25 Betfair Exchange

+6.67%

Model: 19%

FT Result

Draw

3.83 Fair: 3.65 1xBet

+4.93%

Model: 27.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.22 Fair: 2.15 Pinnacle

+3.26%

Model: 46.4%

HT Result

Away

5.86 Fair: 5.78 Pinnacle

+1.38%

Model: 17.3%

Celta de Vigo vs Real Madrid

high

Fri 6th, 20:00

HT Result

Home

4.18 Fair: 3.73 Pinnacle

+12.06%

Model: 26.8%

FT Result

Away

2.24 Fair: 2.00 Betfair Exchange

+12%

Model: 50.1%

BTTS

No

2.32 Fair: 2.23 Betfair Exchange

+4.04%

Model: 44.9%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.34 Fair: 1.31 Pinnacle

+2.29%

Model: 76.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.41 Fair: 2.40 Pinnacle

+0.42%

Model: 41.7%

Osasuna vs Mallorca

high

Sat 7th, 13:00

FT Result

Home

1.83 Fair: 1.67 1xBet

+9.58%

Model: 59.9%

BTTS

No

1.83 Fair: 1.78 Betfair Exchange

+2.81%

Model: 56.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.20 Fair: 1.19 1xBet

+0.84%

Model: 83.9%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.32 1xBet

+0.76%

Model: 76%

Levante vs Girona

high

Sat 7th, 15:15

BTTS

No

2.22 Fair: 2.04 Betfair Exchange

+8.82%

Model: 49.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.28 Fair: 2.20 Pinnacle

+3.64%

Model: 45.5%

FT Result

Away

2.59 Fair: 2.50 1xBet

+3.6%

Model: 40%

Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad

high

Sat 7th, 17:30

HT Result

Away

6.03 Fair: 5.18 Pinnacle

+16.41%

Model: 19.3%

FT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 5.54 Kambi Group

+8.3%

Model: 18.1%

Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona

high

Sat 7th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

5.20 Fair: 3.82 Kambi Group

+36.13%

Model: 26.2%

HT Result

Home

4.90 Fair: 3.92 Pinnacle

+25%

Model: 25.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.06 Pinnacle

+15.05%

Model: 48.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.69 Fair: 2.50 Pinnacle

+7.6%

Model: 40.1%

FT Result

Draw

4.70 Fair: 4.46 Betfair Exchange

+5.38%

Model: 22.4%

BTTS

No

2.60 Fair: 2.57 Pinnacle

+1.17%

Model: 38.9%

Villarreal vs Elche

high

Sun 8th, 13:00

FT Result

Away

6.80 Fair: 5.26 Betfair Exchange

+29.28%

Model: 19%

HT Result

Away

6.26 Fair: 4.94 Pinnacle

+26.72%

Model: 20.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.77 Fair: 2.35 Pinnacle

+17.87%

Model: 42.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.80 Fair: 4.24 Betfair Exchange

+13.21%

Model: 23.6%

BTTS

No

2.18 Fair: 1.99 Betfair Exchange

+9.55%

Model: 50.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.62 Fair: 2.50 Pinnacle

+4.8%

Model: 39.9%

Getafe vs Real Betis

high

Sun 8th, 15:15

FT Result

Away

2.94 Fair: 1.96 Betfair Exchange

+50%

Model: 51%

HT Result

Away

3.75 Fair: 2.72 Pinnacle

+37.87%

Model: 36.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.45 Fair: 1.26 1xBet

+15.08%

Model: 79.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.46 Fair: 1.39 Pinnacle

+5.04%

Model: 72%

BTTS

No

1.74 Fair: 1.69 Betfair Exchange

+2.96%

Model: 59.1%

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

high

Sun 8th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

3.23 Fair: 2.66 1xBet

+21.43%

Model: 37.5%

BTTS

Yes

1.94 Fair: 1.81 Betfair Exchange

+7.18%

Model: 55.2%

HT Result

Away

3.93 Fair: 3.69 Pinnacle

+6.5%

Model: 27.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.61 Fair: 1.56 1xBet

+3.21%

Model: 64%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.38 Fair: 1.36 Pinnacle

+1.47%

Model: 73.5%

Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés

high

Sun 8th, 20:00

HT Result

Away

4.88 Fair: 4.02 Pinnacle

+21.39%

Model: 24.9%

FT Result

Away

4.17 Fair: 3.55 Pinnacle

+17.46%

Model: 28.2%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.38 Pinnacle

+1.45%

Model: 72.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.09 Fair: 2.07 Pinnacle

+0.97%

Model: 48.2%

Espanyol vs Real Oviedo

high

Mon 9th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.70 Fair: 3.77 Kambi Group

+24.67%

Model: 26.5%

HT Result

Away

5.18 Fair: 4.44 Pinnacle

+16.67%

Model: 22.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.95 Fair: 1.86 Kambi Group

+4.84%

Model: 53.8%

BTTS

Yes

2.06 Fair: 2.03 Betfair Exchange

+1.48%

Model: 49.2%

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal

high

Fri 13th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

3.50 Fair: 2.65 Betfair Exchange

+32.08%

Model: 37.7%

HT Result

Home

4.00 Fair: 3.26 Bet365

+22.7%

Model: 30.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.72 Fair: 1.57 Bet365

+9.55%

Model: 63.6%

BTTS

Yes

1.82 Fair: 1.74 Betfair Exchange

+4.6%

Model: 57.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.