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Liga MX Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga MX

Find value bets for Liga MX fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Querétaro vs Toluca

medium

Sun 5th, 00:00

HT Result

Home

5.97 Fair: 5.00 Pinnacle

+19.4%

Model: 20%

BTTS

No

2.12 Fair: 1.91 Betfair Exchange

+10.99%

Model: 52.4%

FT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 5.54 Betfair Exchange

+8.3%

Model: 18%

FT Result

Draw

4.50 Fair: 4.20 Betfair Exchange

+7.14%

Model: 23.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.49 Fair: 2.43 Pinnacle

+2.47%

Model: 41.1%

Monterrey vs Atlético San Luis

medium

Sun 5th, 00:00

FT Result

Away

6.10 Fair: 4.48 Kambi Group

+36.16%

Model: 22.3%

HT Result

Away

5.69 Fair: 5.10 Pinnacle

+11.57%

Model: 19.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.80 Fair: 4.52 Betfair Exchange

+6.19%

Model: 22.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.38 Fair: 2.25 1xBet

+5.78%

Model: 44.5%

BTTS

Yes

1.74 Fair: 1.67 Betfair Exchange

+4.19%

Model: 59.7%

medium

Sun 5th, 02:00

FT Result

Home

2.36 Fair: 1.87 Betfair Exchange

+26.2%

Model: 53.6%

HT Result

Home

2.92 Fair: 2.56 Pinnacle

+14.06%

Model: 39%

BTTS

No

2.18 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+7.92%

Model: 49.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.36 Fair: 1.28 Bet365

+6.25%

Model: 78.2%

Cruz Azul vs Pachuca

medium

Sun 5th, 02:05

BTTS

No

2.34 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+21.24%

Model: 51.7%

FT Result

Home

1.94 Fair: 1.76 Betfair Exchange

+10.23%

Model: 56.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.28 Fair: 1.24 Bet365

+3.23%

Model: 80.6%

HT Result

Home

2.50 Fair: 2.43 Bet365

+2.88%

Model: 41.2%

Santos Laguna vs América

medium

Sun 5th, 04:10

HT Result

Home

5.29 Fair: 4.48 Pinnacle

+18.08%

Model: 22.3%

FT Result

Home

5.25 Fair: 4.55 Kambi Group

+15.38%

Model: 22%

HT Result

Draw

2.49 Fair: 2.41 Pinnacle

+3.32%

Model: 41.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.25 Fair: 2.21 Kambi Group

+1.81%

Model: 45.2%

Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM

medium

Mon 6th, 03:07

FT Result

Away

6.20 Fair: 4.85 Betfair Exchange

+27.84%

Model: 20.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.49 Fair: 2.31 1xBet

+7.79%

Model: 43.3%

HT Result

Away

6.11 Fair: 5.76 Pinnacle

+6.08%

Model: 17.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.49 Fair: 4.40 Pinnacle

+2.05%

Model: 22.7%

Querétaro vs Juárez

medium

Wed 8th, 01:00

FT Result

Away

3.06 Fair: 2.55 Pinnacle

+20%

Model: 39.3%

HT Result

Home

3.52 Fair: 3.38 1xBet

+4.14%

Model: 29.6%

Puebla vs León

medium

Sat 11th, 02:00

BTTS

No

2.20 Fair: 2.12 Bet365

+3.77%

Model: 47.2%

FT Result

Away

3.09 Fair: 3.06 1xBet

+0.98%

Model: 32.7%

Querétaro vs Necaxa

medium

Sun 12th, 00:00

FT Result

Away

2.94 Fair: 2.71 1xBet

+8.49%

Model: 36.9%

HT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 3.58 Bet365

+0.56%

Model: 27.9%

Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara

medium

Sun 12th, 00:00

FT Result

Home

2.61 Fair: 2.07 1xBet

+26.09%

Model: 48.2%

HT Result

Home

3.20 Fair: 2.71 Bet365

+18.08%

Model: 36.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.50 Fair: 1.38 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 72.2%

Pachuca vs Santos Laguna

medium

Sun 12th, 02:00

BTTS

No

2.10 Fair: 2.07 Bet365

+1.45%

Model: 48.4%

Pumas UNAM vs Mazatlán

medium

Sun 12th, 19:00

FT Result

Away

6.14 Fair: 5.01 1xBet

+22.55%

Model: 20%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.62 Fair: 2.24 Bet365

+16.96%

Model: 44.7%

FT Result

Draw

4.40 Fair: 4.04 Bet365

+8.91%

Model: 24.7%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 5.64 Bet365

+6.38%

Model: 17.7%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.91 Bet365

+4.71%

Model: 52.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.44 Bet365

+2.46%

Model: 40.9%

Toluca vs Atlético San Luis

medium

Mon 13th, 02:00

HT Result

Away

7.50 Fair: 6.91 Bet365

+8.54%

Model: 14.5%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.