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Europa League Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Europa League

Find value bets for Europa League fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Bologna vs Roma

medium

Thu 12th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

3.27 Fair: 2.55 1xBet

+28.24%

Model: 39.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.53 Fair: 1.48 Bet365

+3.38%

Model: 67.5%

BTTS

No

1.88 Fair: 1.87 Betfair Exchange

+0.53%

Model: 53.3%

Panathinaikos vs Real Betis

medium

Thu 12th, 17:45

HT Result

Home

4.33 Fair: 3.10 Bet365

+39.68%

Model: 32.3%

FT Result

Home

3.82 Fair: 2.79 1xBet

+36.92%

Model: 35.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.72 Fair: 1.59 Bet365

+8.18%

Model: 62.8%

LOSC Lille vs Aston Villa

medium

Thu 12th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

2.98 Fair: 2.32 1xBet

+28.45%

Model: 43%

HT Result

Home

3.40 Fair: 3.18 Bet365

+6.92%

Model: 31.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.53 Fair: 1.49 Bet365

+2.68%

Model: 67.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.32 Bet365

+0.76%

Model: 75.7%

VfB Stuttgart vs Porto

medium

Thu 12th, 17:45

FT Result

Away

3.57 Fair: 2.87 1xBet

+24.39%

Model: 34.8%

BTTS

Yes

1.68 Fair: 1.64 Betfair Exchange

+2.44%

Model: 61.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.30 Bet365

+2.31%

Model: 76.9%

Ferencvárosi vs Sporting Braga

medium

Thu 12th, 20:00

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 2.91 Bet365

+23.71%

Model: 34.4%

FT Result

Home

3.15 Fair: 2.58 1xBet

+22.09%

Model: 38.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.57 Fair: 1.56 Bet365

+0.64%

Model: 64.1%

Genk vs SC Freiburg

medium

Thu 12th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.73 Fair: 1.86 1xBet

+46.77%

Model: 53.8%

HT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.71 Bet365

+14.39%

Model: 36.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.44 Fair: 1.30 Bet365

+10.77%

Model: 77.2%

BTTS

No

2.24 Fair: 2.19 Betfair Exchange

+2.28%

Model: 45.7%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.31 Bet365

+1.53%

Model: 76.6%

Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland

medium

Thu 12th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+160.87%

Model: 43.5%

HT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 2.78 Bet365

+97.84%

Model: 35.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.37 Fair: 1.49 Bet365

+59.06%

Model: 67.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.46 Fair: 4.22 1xBet

+5.69%

Model: 23.7%

Celta de Vigo vs Olympique Lyonnais

medium

Thu 12th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

7.55 Fair: 2.54 1xBet

+197.24%

Model: 39.4%

FT Result

Away

3.70 Fair: 2.79 Betfair Exchange

+32.62%

Model: 35.9%

HT Result

Away

4.00 Fair: 3.58 Bet365

+11.73%

Model: 28%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.72 Fair: 1.65 Bet365

+4.24%

Model: 60.6%

BTTS

Yes

1.77 Fair: 1.74 Betfair Exchange

+1.72%

Model: 57.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.