As a football betting enthusiast, you're always on the lookout for ways to gain an edge in the market. One powerful tool that can help you identify profitable betting opportunities is the probability model data provided by OddAlerts. In this article, we'll explore how you can use this data, available for download as CSVs, to create and refine your football value bets strategies.
Understanding the Data
Let's start by examining a sample row from the FT Result data:
- ID: Unique identifier for the match
- Home Team Name
- Away Team Name
- Date: Unix timestamp of the match start time
- Home Goals Scored
- Away Goals Scored
- Total Corners
- Home Games Played
- Away Games Played
- Home Team Position
- Away Team Position
- Country
- League Name
- Competition Type
- Is Friendly Match
- League Predictability Rating
- Competition Progress (% of season completed)
- Home Win Probability
- Draw Probability
- Away Win Probability
- Opening Odds
- Closing Odds
- Peak Odds
- Filter the data to include only matches where the model's probability for a specific outcome (e.g., away win) is above a certain threshold (e.g., 45%).
- Compare the model's probability to the bookmaker's odds to ensure you're getting value.
- Place bets on the matches that meet these criteria.
- Monitor your results and adjust the probability threshold or other parameters as needed.
- Real-time probability values: Retrieve the latest probability estimates for upcoming matches, allowing you to quickly identify value bets as they emerge.
- Live odds: Access real-time odds from multiple bookmakers, enabling you to compare prices and find the best available odds for your bets.
- Odds movement tracking: Monitor how odds change over time, helping you spot market trends and make more informed betting decisions.
- Comprehensive odds history: Dive deep into historical odds data to backtest your betting strategies and identify profitable patterns.
- Seamless integration: Easily incorporate the API into your own applications, betting bots, or custom tools to automate and streamline your betting processes.
Each row in the CSV represents a single match and contains valuable information such as team names, match date, goals scored, league details, and most importantly, the probabilities for each outcome (home win, draw, away win) as calculated by OddAlerts' model.
Identifying Value Bets
The key to finding profitable betting opportunities lies in comparing the model's probabilities to the bookmakers' odds. When the model's probability for an outcome is higher than the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, you've identified a value bet. This is the essence of positive EV betting, where you're consistently placing bets with a positive expected value.
For example, in the sample row, the away team (Povltava FA) has a 48% probability of winning according to the model. The closing odds for an away win are 2.88, which translates to an implied probability of 34.7% (1/2.88). Since the model's probability is significantly higher, this indicates a value bet on the away team.
Building a Betting System
With access to historical data, you can test and refine betting systems based on the model's probabilities. Here's a simple example of how to find value bets:
You can further refine your system by considering additional factors such as league predictability, competition progress, or team form.
Calculating Profit from Value Bets
To calculate the potential profit from a value bet, you need to consider the difference between the model's probability and the bookmaker's implied probability. The larger the gap, the more profitable the bet can be in the long run. Let's look at a couple of examples:
Example 1: The model assigns a 60% probability to a home win, while the bookmaker's odds imply a probability of only 50%. If you place a $100 bet on the home team at odds of 2.00 (1/0.50), your expected value (EV) is:
EV = (0.60 * $100 * 2.00) - (1 - 0.60) * $100 = $80
This means that, on average, you can expect to profit $80 for every $100 wagered on this bet.
Example 2: The model predicts a 45% probability for an away win, while the bookmaker's odds imply a probability of 35.7% (1/2.80). If you place a $50 bet on the away team at odds of 2.80, your expected value is:
EV = (0.45 * $50 * 2.80) - (1 - 0.45) * $50 = $35.50
In this case, your average expected profit is $35.50 for every $50 wagered.
By consistently placing value bets with positive expected value, you can build a profitable betting strategy over time. Keep in mind that individual results may vary, but the long-term profitability of a well-designed value betting system can be substantial.
Tracking your bets is crucial for monitoring the performance of your betting system. OddAlerts has bet tracking built into our value betting that includes automatic settlement of bets.
Leveraging the OddAlerts API for Real-Time Data Access
While downloading CSV files provides a static snapshot of the probability model data, the OddAlerts API offers a more dynamic and powerful solution for serious bettors. With the API, you can enjoy constant access to the OddAlerts database, ensuring you always have the most up-to-date information at your fingertips.
Some of the key features and benefits of the OddAlerts API include:
By harnessing the power of the OddAlerts API, you can take your betting strategies to the next level and gain a significant edge in the competitive world of football betting. Whether you're a professional bettor or a passionate enthusiast, the API provides the tools and data you need to make more informed, profitable decisions.
To learn more about the OddAlerts API and start leveraging its features, visit https://oddalerts.com/football-data-api today.